CO2 Emisyonu ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Hindistan, Çin, Brezilya ve Güney Afrika için Panel Veri Analizi

Bu çalışmada Hindistan, Çin, Brezilya ve Güney Afrika ülkelerinde CO2 emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki 1980-2010 dönemi için panel eşbütünleşme testi ve panel nedensellik analizi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonuçları bu ülkelerde ekonomik büyümedeki %1’lik artışın CO2 emisyonunu yaklaşık %0.55 oranında yükselttiğini göstermiştir. Ayrıca ülkelerin bireysel sonuçlarına göre bu ülkelerde ekonomik büyüme ile birlikte CO2 emisyonunda ciddi artışların olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Örneğin Brezilya’da, Çin’de, Hindistan’da ve Güney Afrika’da ekonomik büyümede %1’lik artış CO2 emisyonunu sırasıyla yaklaşık %1, %0.5, %0.9, %0.6 oranında artırmaktadır. Panel Vecm nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeden CO2 emisyonuna doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu ülkelerin çevre politikalarında daha temiz enerji kaynaklarına yer vermeleri gerekmektedir.

The Relationship between CO2 Emission and Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis for India, China, Brazil and South Africa

In this study, the relationship between CO2 emission and economic growth is investigated in India, China, Brazil and South Africa countries for the period 1980-2010, using panel cointegration test and panel causality analysis. The results indicate that in these countries the increase of GDP by 1% raises CO2 emission almost by 0.55%. Furthermore, according to countries individual results it is observed that CO2 emission is increasing with economic growth in these countries. For instance, in Brazil, in China, in India and in South Africa, increasing in economic growth by 1% raises CO2 emission respectively by 1%, 0.5%, 0.9%, 0.6%. With regard to panel causality test in both short run and long run there is unidirectional causality running from economic growth to CO2 emission. These countries should give place to more clean energy resources in their energy policy.

Keywords:

CO2 Emission, Economic Growth, Panel Cointegration Test, DynamicSur Panel VECM Causality,

PDF

___

Akbostancı, E., Türüt-Aşık, S. ve Tunç, G. İ. (2009). The Relationship Between Income and Environment in Turkey: Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve?. Energy Policy, 37, 861-867.
Ang, J.B. (2007). CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, and Output in France. Energy Policy, 35, 4772-4778.
Başar, S. ve Temurlenk, M.S. (2007). Çevreye Uyarlanmış Kuznets Eğrisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 1, 1-12.
Breuer, J.B., McNown, R. ve Wallece, M.S. (2001). Misleading Inferences From Panel Unit-root Tests With An Illustration From Purchasing Power Parity. Review of International Economics, 9(3), 482-493.
Breusch, T.S. ve Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-253.
Chang, C. (2010). A Multivariate Causality Test of Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China. AppliedEnergy, 87, 3533-3537.
Choi, E., Heshmati, A. ve Cho, Y. (2010). An Empirical Study of The Relationship Between CO2, Economic Growth and Openness. IZA Discussion Paper Series, NO. 5304, 1-27.
Coondoo, D. ve Dinda, S. (2002). Causality Between Income and Emission: A Country Group- Specific Econometric Analysis. Ecological Economics, 40, 351-367.
Cowan, W.N., Chang, T., Inglesi-Lotz, R. ve Gupta, R. (2014). The Nexus of Electricty Consumption, Economic Growth and CO2 Emisisions in the BRICS Countries. Energy Policy, 66, 359-368.
Dinda, S. (2004). Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey. Ecological Economics, 49, 431-455.
Dinda, S. ve Coondoo, D. (2006). Income and Emission: A Panel Data-based Cointegration Analysis. Ecological Economics, 57, 167-181.
Everett, T., Ishwaran, M., Asalani, G. ve Rubin, A. (2010). Economic Growth and the Environment. Defra Evindence and Analysis Series, 2, 1-52.
Focacci, A. (2003). Empirical Evidence in The Analysis of The Environmental and Energy Policies of A Series of Industrialised Nations, During the Period 1960-1997, Using Widely Employed Macroeconomics Indicators. Energy Policy, 31, 333-352.
Focacci, A. (2005). Empirical Analysis of the Environmental and Energy Polices in Some Developing Countries Using Widely Employed Macroeconomic Indicators: The Cases of Brazil, China, and India. Energy Policy, 33, 543- 554.
Fodha, M. ve Zaghdoud, O. (2010). Economic Growth and Pollutant Emissions in Tunisia: An Empirical Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Energy Policy, 38, 1150-1156.
Govindaraju, V.G.R. C. ve Tang, C.F. (2013). The Dynamic Links Between CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth and Coal Consumption in China and India. Applied Energy, 104, 310-318.
Grossman, G. ve Krueger, A.B. (1991). Environmental Impacts of A North American Free Trade Aggrement. NBER Working Papers, No: 3914, 1-57.
Hamit-Hagar, M. (2012). Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration Analysis from Canadian Industrial Sector Perspective. Energy Economics, 34, 358-364.
IEA (2015). Energy and Climate Change-World Energy Outlook Special Report. https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2015Spe cialReportonEnergyandClimateChange.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 31 Temmuz 2015)
Lean, H. ve Smyth, R. (2010). CO2emissions, electricity consumption and output in Asean.AppliedEnergy, 87, 1858-1864.
Lee, C.C. ve Le, J.D. (2009). Income and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests. Energy Policy, 37, 413-423.
Mark, N.C., Ogaki, M. ve Sul, D. (2005). Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegration Regression. Review of Economic Studies, 72, 797-820.
Mensah, J. (2014). Carbon Emissions, Energy Consumption and Output: Threshold Analysis on the Causal Dynamics in Emerging African Economies. Energy Policy, 70, 172-182.
Narayan, P.K. ve Narayan, S. (2009). Carbondioxide Emissions and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Developing Countries. Energy Policy, 38, 661-666.
Orubu, C.O. ve Omotor, D.G. (2011). Environmental Quality and Economic Growth: Searching for Environmental Kuznets Curves for Air and Water Pollutants in Africa. Energy Policy, 39, 4178-4188.
Panayotou, T. (2003). Economic Growth and the Environment. http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/ead/sem/sem2003/papers/panayotou. pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 04.08.2015)
Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of CrossSection Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 365-312.
Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127.
Pesaran, M.H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93.
Saidi, K. ve Hammami, S. (2015). The Impact of CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth on Energy Consumption in 58 Countries. Energy Reports, 1, 62-70.
Shahbaz, M., Tiwari, A.K. ve Nasır, M. (2013). The Effects of Financial Development, Economic Growth, Coal Consumption and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions in South Africa. Energy Policy, 61, 1452-1459.
Sarısoy, S. ve Yıldız, F. (2013). Karbondioksit (CO2) Emisyonu ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Panel Veri Analizi. Namık Kemal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Metini, No:2, 1-19.
Soytaş, U., Sarı, R. ve Ewing, T.B. (2007). Energy Consumption, Income, and Carbon Emissions in the United States. Ecological Economics, 62, 482-489.
Soytaş, U. ve Sarı, R. (2009). Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emissions: Challenges faced by an EU Candidate Member. Ecological Economics, 68, 1667-1675.
Yandle, B., Bhattarai, M. ve Viayaraghava, M. (2004). Environmental Kuznets Curves: A Review of Findings, Methods, and Policy Implications. PERC Research Study, 2(1), 1-38.
Zeb, R., Salar, L., Awan, U., Zaman, K. ve Shahbaz, M. (2014). Causal Links Between Renewable Energy, Environmental Degradation and Economic Growth in Selected SAARC Countries: Progress Towards Green Economy. Renewable Energy, 71, 123-132.
Westerlund, J. ve Edgerton, D.L. (2007). A Panel Bootstrap Coentegration Test. Economic Letters, 97, 185-190.