Ayşe METİN KARAKAŞ

Copula Metodu Kullanarak Bitlis İlindeki Günlük Maksimum ve Minumum Sıcaklık Değişimlerinin Modellenmesi

Bu makalenin amacı Bitlis’in 2012-2017 yılları arasındaki günlük maksimum ve minumum sıcaklıkları arasındaki ilişkiyi Copula methodu ile açıklamaktır. İlişkiyi açıklamak için çeşitli copula aileleri kullanılmıştır. Bunlar; Gumbel, Clayton, Frank, Joe, Gaussian ve Survival Claytondur. Bağımlılık yapısını açıklamak ve Gumbel, Clayton, Frank, Joe, Gaussian ve Survival Clayton copula ailelerinin parametrelerini belirlemek için parametrik olmayan metod olan Kendall Tau ve Spearman Rho değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Uyum iyiliği testleri Kolmogorov Smirnov, Cramer Von Mises, maksimum olabilirlik metodu, Akaike bilgi kriteri ve Bayes bilgi kriteri yardımıyla veri seti için uygun copula ailesi bulunmuştur. Sonuçlar Bitlis’in 2012 yılı ile 2017 yılları arasında günlük maksimum ve minumum sıcaklık değişimleri için güçlü bir bağımlılık olduğunu göstermiştir.

Modeling of daily maximum and minimum temperature changes in Bitlis province using Copula Method

This paper aims to examine the relationship between daily maximum and minimum temperatures of Bitlis inTurkey between 2012-2017 years with Copula method. To present the relationship between the variables, we usecopula families such as; Gumbel, Clayton, Frank, Joe, Gaussian and Survival Clayton copula. To explaindependence structures of the data set and to determine parameters of Gumbel, Clayton, Frank, Joe, Gaussian andSurvival Clayton copula families, we calculate Kendall Tau and Spearman Rho values which are nonparametric.With the help of Kolmogorov Smirnov, Cramer Von Mises which are goodness of fit test, Maximum likelihoodmethod, Akaike information Criteria ad Bayes information criteria, we find the suitable copula family for this dataset. The results show that there is a strong dependence between daily maximum and minimum temperatures ofBitlis between 2012-2017 years.

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