TÜRKİYE’DE DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR VE TİCARİ DIŞA AÇIKLIK İLİŞKİSİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada, 1980-2016 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisi için net doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri ve ticari dışa açıklık arasındaki ilişki Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme testi ve hata düzeltme modeline dayalı nedensellik analiziyle araştırılmıştır. Yapılan eşbütünleşme analizi sonucunda, değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik olduğu tespit edilmiş, başka bir ifadeyle iki değişkenin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettikleri sonucuna varılmıştır. Nedensellik analizi sonucunda ise, ticari dışa açıklıktan doğrudan yabancı yatırım değişkenine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda ticari dışa açıklığın doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri açısından bir uyarıcı niteliği taşıdığı söylenebilecektir. Özellikle ekonomik açıklar üzerindeki finansman niteliğinin uzun vadeli olması doğrudan yabancı yatırımların gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomileri açısından önem arz ettiğinin göstergesidir. Bu nedenle ticari dışa açıklık derecesinin nitelikli bir şekilde arttırılması ile beraber uzun vadeli sermaye girişlerinin hız kazanması beklenebilecektir.

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DİRECT INVESTMENT AND TRADE OPENNES IN TURKEY

In this study, the relationship between net foreign direct investment inflows and trade openness for Turkish economy in the period of 1980-2016 was investigated by Engle-Granger co-integration test and causality analysis based on error correction model. According to results of the co-integration analysis, it was found that the variables are co-integrated, in other words, the two variables have moved together in the long run. Besides, according to results of the causality analysis, it was found that there is a unidirectional causality relationship from trade openness to foreign direct investment. In this context, it can be argued that trade openness acts as a stimulant in terms of foreign direct investment inflows. The long-term financing, especially on economic deficits, is an indication that foreign direct investments are important for the developing countries’ economies. For this reason, it is expected that long-term capital inflows will accelerate as the trade openness level is increased in a qualitative way

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