KÜRESELLEŞME ÇAĞINDA EKONOMIK BÜYÜME VE KAMU BORCU: GELIŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERE DAIR BIR İNCELEME

ÖzetBu çalışma, 1970-2015 yılları arasını kapsamak üzere 72 az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkenin, kamu borcu veekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini ampirik olarak incelemektedir. Toda-Yamamoto genişletilmişGranger nedensellik analiz testi uygulanmıştır. Yapılan analize göre, 21 ülkede ekonomik büyümeden kamuborçlanmasına doğru, 15 ülkede kamu borçlanmasından ekonomik büyümeye doğru, 9 ülkede karşılıklı birnedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiş ve 27 ülke ekonomisi için kamu borçlanması ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaherhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi gözlemlenmemiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kamu borcu, Ekonomik büyüme, Nedensellik analizi

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PUBLIC DEBT IN THE ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION ERA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

AbstractThis paper empirically examines the causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in asample of the 72 countries consisting of less developed and developing, country-by-country, in the periodof 1970–2015. I apply the Toda-Yamamoto augmented Granger non-causality testing procedure. I observea significant causality from economic growth to the public debt of a country in twenty-one countries. Infifteen countries, there is a unidirectional causality running from the public debt to economic growth. I findbi-directional causality in only nine countries and no causal relation in twenty-seven economies.

Keywords:

Public debt, Economic growth, Causality analysis,

PDF

___

Alesina, A. and Perotti, R. (1997). “Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 2.
Baldacci, E. and Kumar, M. S. (2010). “Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields”, IMF Working Paper, WP/10/184.
Barro, R. J. (1979). “On the determination of the public debt”, Journal of Political Economy, 87 (5): 940-971.
Barro, R. J. (2013). “Inflation and economic growth”, Annals of Economic and Finance, Society for AEF, 14 (1): 121-144.
Reinhart, C. M., Rogoff, K. S. and Savastano, M. A. (2003). “Debt intolerance”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 1-74.
Cecchetti, S. G., Mohanty, M. S. and Zampolli F. (2011). “The real effects of debt”, BIS Working Papers, No 352.
Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Econometrica, 49: 1057-72.
Dotsey, M. (1994). “Some unpleasant supply side arithmetic”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 33: 507–524.
Dreher, A. (2006). “Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization”, Applied Economics 38, pp. 1091–1110.
Dreher, A., Noel G. and Pim M. (2008). Measuring globalization: gauging its consequence, New York: Springer.
Easterly, W. R. (2001). “Growth Implosions and Debt Explosions: Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises?”, Contributions to Macroeconomics, 1 (1): 1-24.
Egert, B. (2013). “Public Debt, Economic Growth and Nonlinear Effects: Myth or Reality”, CESifo Working Paper: Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth, No. 4157.
Elmendorf, D. W. and Mankiw, N. G. (1998). “Government Debt,” NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), Working Paper No. 6470.
Gale, W. G. and Orszag, P. R. (2003). “Economic Effects of Sustained Budget Deficits”, National Tax Journal, 56: 463–85.
Hemming, R., Kell, M. and Schimmelpfennig A. (2003). “Fiscal vulnerability and financial crises in emerging market economies”, IMF Occasional Paper, No. 218.
Kim, D.H., Suen, Y.B., Lin, S.C. and Hsieh, J. (2018). “Government size, government debt and globalization”, Applied Economics, 50 (25): 2792-2803.
Kumar, M. S. and Woo, J. (2010). “Public debt and growth”, IMF Working Paper, WP/10/174.
Panizza, U. and Presbitero, A. F. (2014). “Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There a Causal Effect?,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 41: 21-41.
Rambaldi, A. N. and Doran, H. E. (1996). “Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Cointegrated Systems Made Easy”, Working Papers in Econometrics and Applied Statistics, Department of Econometrics, The University of New England, No. 88.
Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2010). “Growth in a time of debt”, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 100: 573–578.
Toda, H. Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995). “Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66: 225-250.
United Nations, (2002). “Globalization and new challenges of public finance: Financial management, transparency and accountability”, Report of the Meeting of the Group of Experts Rome, 28-30 November 2001, New York, 2002.
Zapata, H. O. and Rambaldi, A. N. (1997). “Monte Carlo evidence on cointegration and causation”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 59: 285–298.