DEBT SERVICES AND NON-LINEAR ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE IN MENA COUNTRIES

Son zamanda meydana gelen ekonomik kriz ve özellikle gelişmekte olan Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika ülkelerindeki artan kamu borçları sonucunda kamu sektörünün mali sıkıntısı endişesi bölgedeki politika yapıcılar için önemli bir endişe kaynağı haline gelmiştir. Döviz kurlarının kontrol edilememesi ve küçük ölçekli MENA ekonomilerinde maliye politikalarındaki disipsizlinlik son zamanlarda bu ülkelerin hem mali hem de gelecekteki ekonomik durumunun belirlenmesinde kritik hale gelmiştir. Bunların en büyük nedeni ise 1990'dan bu yana artarak biriken dış borçların hızla büyümesidir. İstatiksel ve ekonometrik analizler bu borçların sürdürülebilirliği noktasındaki kaygıları boşa çıkarmamaktadır, ancak konjüktür yanlısı önyargılar ekonomik ıraksamayı desteklemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı MENA ülkelerinin dış borçlarının yakınsama gösterip göstermediğini test etmektir. Çalışmada 1970 ile 2013 yılları Lübnan, Fas, Tunus ve Türkiye'den toplanan veriler ele alınmıştır. TAR panel birim kök testi sonuçları bu ülkelerin her iki rejimde de yakınsama gösterdiklerini ispatlamaktadır.

MENA ÜLKELERİNDE BORÇ SERVİSİ ve DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAKINSAMA

In the wake of the recent financial crisis and after the accumulation of sizeable public debts, especially in the emerging Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies, the financial distress of the public sector has become a major source of concern for policymakers in the region. The conduct of uncontrolled exchange rate and undisciplined fiscal policies in small scale Mena economies has recently become critical in determining these countries’ future economic and fiscal situation, due to the accumulation of a sizable level of external debt since early 1990s. Statistical and econometric analysis supports the view that the current fiscal framework addressed debt sustainability concerns, but imparted a pro-cyclical bias, which contributed to economic divergence. The subject of this paper is the examination of convergence of debt service on external debt of MENA countries. The paper launches the data of a period between 1970 and 2013 for MENA economies of Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey. This paper employs Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) panel unit root test to examine the stationarity of the series. Finally, the paper reveals that there is a full convergence for panel in both regimes

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