Hakan ÇETİNTAŞ, Sami TABAN, Halil ALTINTAŞ

Türkiye'de Bütçe Açığı, Parasal Büyüme ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi: 1992-2006

Bütçe açıkları, parasal büyüme ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen ampirik araştırmalarda bu değişkenler arasında olası bir ilişkinin varlığı konusunda tam bir görüş birliği bulunmamaktadır. Ancak ampirik araştırmalardan çıkarılabilecek en önemli sonuç, monetizasyon yoluyla bütçe açıklarının finanse edilmesiyle artan para arzının enflasyona neden olabileceğini göstermiştir. Bütçe açıklarının enflasyonist etkisi, açıkların hangi yöntemlerle finanse edilmesine ve toplam talep üzerindeki etkisine bağlı olarak değişmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de bütçe açığı, para arzı ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişkiler 1992:1 ve 2006:12 dönemi için ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Elde edilen ampirik sonuçlara göre enflasyon ile parasal büyüme arasında hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki bulunurken, bütçe açığı ile enflasyon arasında uzun ve kısa dönemde bir ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır.

Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Budget Deficit, Monetary Growth and Inflation in Turkey: 1992-2006

Empirical investigations examining the relationship between budget deficits, monetary growth and inflation have not reached a consensus on the possible relationship between deficits, monetary growth and the rate of inflation. But the major outcome from the empirical studies indicated strong evidence that a budget deficit financed through monetisation and a rising money supply could lead to inflation. The inflationary effect of budget deficits depends on the means by which the deficit is financed and the impact of that on aggregate demand. In this study, budget deficits, monetary growth and inflation relationships are investigated by utilizing the ARDL bounds testing approach for Turkey over the period 1992:1-2006:12. While empirical results show that there is a statistically positive relationship between monetary growth and inflation in both long and short run, no connection found between inflation and budget deficit in the both runs.

PDF

___

Abizadeh, S. ve Yousefi M. (1986). Political Parties, Deficits, and The Rate of Inflation: A Comparative Study. Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies, 11, 393-411.
Abizadeh, S., Benarroch ve Yousefi M. (1996). A Multilevel Government Model of Deficits and Inflation. Atlantic Economic Journal, 24(2): 118-130.
Afonso, A. (1993). Causality Between Public Deficits and Inflation: Some Tests for The Portuguese Case, Estudos de Economia, 13/4: 349-362.
Aghaveli, B.B. ve Khan M.S. (1978). Government Deficit and Inflationary Process in Developing Countries. IMF Staff Paper, 2/3: 18-130.
Ahking, F. W. ve Miller, S. M. (1985). The Relationship Between Government Growth and Inflation. Journal of Macroeconomics, 7/4: 447-467.
Akçay, O. C., Alper C. E. ve Özmucur S. (2001). Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey (1970-2000), Boğaziçi University Research Papers, SBE 01-12.
Akçay, O. C., Alper C. E. ve Özmucur (1996). Budget Deficit, Money Supply and Inflation: Evidence from Low and High Frequency Data from Turkey, Boğaziçi University Research Papers, SBE 96- 12.
Alavirad, A. (2003). The Effect of Inflation on Government Revenue and Expenditure: The Case of Islamic Republic of Iran. Opec Review, 27(4), 331-341.
Alavirad, A. ve Athawale A. (2005), The Impact of the Budget Deficit on Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran. OPEC Review, (March), 37-49.
Balla S. S. (1981), The Transmission of Inflation into Developing Economies, in World Inflation and Developing Countries: Washington DC, Brooking Institution.
Barro, R. (1980), Output Effects of Government Purchases, NBER Working Paper Series, No: 432.
Barth J. R. ve Wells J. M. (1999), Budget Deficit and Economic Activity, Budget Deficit and Debt: A Global Perspective, S. Shojai (Ed.) Greenwood Publishing Group.
Blanchard, OJ. ve Fischer S. (1989). Lectures on Macroeconomics, The MİT Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts, and London, England.
Buchanan, J.M. ve Wagner, R.E. (1978). Dialogues Concerning Fiscal Religion. Journal of Monetary Economics, 4, 627-636.
Catao, L. ve Terrones, E. M. (2001). Public Deficit and Inflation: a New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence, IMF Working Paper No WP/01/74.
Catao, L. ve Terrones E. M. (2001). Fiscal Deficits and Inflation, IMF Working Paper No:WP/03/65.
Chaudhary, M. A. S. ve Ahmad N. (1995). Money Supply, Deficit and Inflation in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 34(4), 945-956.
Chaudhary, M. A. S vee Parai A. K. (1991). Budget Deficit and Inflation: The Peruvian Experience. Applied Economics, 23,1117-1121.
Corsetti, C/Roubini N. (1997). Politically Motivated Fiscal Deficit: Policy Issues in Closed and Open Economy. Economic and Politics, 9(1), 27-54.
Çetintaş H. (2005). Türkiye'de Bütçe Açıkları Enflasyonun Nedeni midir?, İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 20/29,115-127.
Darrat, A. F. (1985). "Inflation and Federal Budget Deficits: Some Empirical Results. Public Finance Review, 3(2), 206-215.
Dornbusch, R. ve Fischer, S. (1981). Budget Deficit and Inflation, İçinde M. J. FLANDERS VE A. RAZIN (Eds.), Development in Inflationary World: New York.
Dornbusch, R. ve Fischer, S. (1994). Macro Economics, McGraw-Hill Inc., Sixth Edition.
Dickey, D. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
Dickey, D. ve Fuller, W.A (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
Giannoros, D. S. ve Kolluri, B. R. (1985). Deficit Spending, Money and Inflation: Some International Empirical Evidence. Journal of Macroeconomics, 7(3), 401-417.
Granger, C. W. J. ve Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometric., Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
Gujarati, D.N. (1999). Temel Ekonometri, (Çev. Ü. Şenesen ve G.G. Şenesen). İstanbul, Literatür Yayınlan!
Gürler, A. S. (1998). Devlet İç Borçlanma Yöntemleri OECD ve Türkiye Uygulamaları. DPT Uzmanlık Tezi, Yayın No: DPT 2488: Ankara.
Hamburger, M. J. ve Zwick, B. (1981). Deficit, Money and Inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, 7(1), 141-150.
Honroyiannis, G. ve Papapetrou, E. (1997). Are Budget Deficits Inflationary? A Cointegration Approach. Applied Economics Letters, 4(8), 493 - 496.
Johansen, S. (1988), Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
Johansen S. ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration -with Application to the Demand for Money", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2): 169-210.
Karaca, O. (2005). Türkiye'de Faiz Oranıi İle Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişki: Faizlerin Düşürülmesi Kurları Yükseltir mi?, Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni No 2005/14, Ekim.
Karras, G. (1994). Macroeconomics Effects of Budget Deficits: Further International Evidence, Journal of International Money and Finance, 13(2), 190-210.
McCallum, B. (1984). Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis, The Journal of Political Economy, 92(1), 123-135.
Meltzer, A. H. (1989). Monetarist, National Review, 41, 47-48.
Metin, K. (1995). An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation, Oxford Bulletin of Statistics an Economics, 57(4), 513-533.
Metin K. (1998). The Relationship between Budget Deficit and Inflation in Turkey, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16(4), 412-422.
Miller, P. (1983). Higher Deficit Policies Lead to Higher Inflation. Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 7(1), 8-19.
Nachaga, J. C. (2005). Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, IMF Working Paper No: WP/05/221.
Nachane, D. M. ve Nadkarni N.M. (1985). Empirical Testing of Certain Monetarist Propositions Via Causality Theory: The Indian Case. Indian Economic Journal, 32(1), 13-41.
Neyapti, B. (2003). Budget Deficit and Inflation: The Role of Central Bank Independence and Financial Market Development, Contemporary Economic Policy, 21(4), 458-475.
Niskanen, W. A. (1978). Deficits, Government Spending and Inflation, What is the Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 4(3), 591-682.
Özgün, D. B. (2000), An Empirical Approach to Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: Evidence From Turkey, Hazine Müsteşarlığı, Ekonomik Araştırmalar Genel Müdürlüğü: Ankara.
Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica, 57(6), 1361-1401
Pesaran, H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R J. (2001). Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Phillips, P.C.B ve Peron P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 336-346.
Piontkivsky, R. vd. (2001). The Impact of The Budget Deficit on Inflation in Ukraine, Research Report, Commissioned by INTÂS, formed by the European Community.
Ramachandran V. S. (1983). Direction of Causality Between Monetary and Real Variables in India: An Empirical Result, Indian Economic Journal, 30(1), 65-74.
Remolona, E. H. (1985). Financing The Budget Deficit in The Philippines, Philippine Institute For Development Studies Working Paper 85-02.
Saçkan, O. (2006), Genel Fiyat Düzeyinin Belirlenmesinde Para ve Maliye Politikası Dominant Rejimler: Türkiye Örneği, 1988-2005, Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi: Ankara.
Solomon, M. ve Wet W. A. The Effect of Budget Deficit on Inflation: The Case of Tanzania, Sagems NS, 7(1), 100-116.
Tekin-K. A. ve Özmen E. (2003). Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Inflation: The Turkish Evidence. Applied Economics, 35(5), 591-596.
Uygur, E. (2001). Türkiye'de Enflasyon, Türkiye Ekonomisi Sektörel Analiz, Yay. Haz., A. ŞAHİNÖZ, Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu, İmaj Yayınevi: Ankara.
Ünsal, E. M. (2007). Makro İktisat, İmaj Yayınevi, Genişletilmiş 7. Baskı: Ankara.
TCMB, Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi, (www.tcmb.gov.tr).
Şimşek, M. ve Kadılar C. (2004). Türkiye'nin İthalat Talebi Fonksiyonunun Sınır Testi Yaklaşımıyla Eşbütünleşme Analizi: 1970-2002. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5(1), 27-34.
Woodford, M. (2001). Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33(3), 669-728.
Yıldırım, K., Karaman, D. ve Taşdemir, M. (2006). Makroekonomi, Seçkin Yayıncılık, 5. Baskı: Ankara.
Yıldız, E. (2006). İkiz Açık Hipotezi ve Türkiye, İzmir İktisat Kongresi Araştırma Merkezi Bilimsel Çalışma Raporları Serisi, BÇR No. 2006/01.
Zivot, E. ve Andrews, D.W.K. (1992). "Further Evidence of Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.
İNTERNET KAYNAKLARI
Afonso, A. (1995), "Public Deficits and Inflation, Some More Results for Portugal" Estudos de Economia,5/3:213-2S6. (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=704904#PaperDownload) (Erişim Tarihi 26.02.2006).
Agha, A. I. ve Khan M.S. (2006). An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Imbalances and Inflation in Pakistan, SBP Research Bulletin, 2/2: 343-362. (erişim tarihi, 26.02.2006) (http://www.sbp.org.pk/research/bulletin/2006/vol2num2/Empirical_Analysis_of_Fiscal Imbalances_and_Inflation_in_Pakistan.pdf)
Egeli, H. (2000). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Bütçe Açıkları. (Erişim Tar. 16.02.2007) (http://www.canaktan.org/ekonomi/kamu_maliyesi/maliye-genel/diger-yazilar/egeli-gelismekte- olan-butce.pdf)
IMF, International Financial Statistics .(http://www.imf.org)
Sargent, T. J. ve Wallace N. (1981). Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review. (Erişim Tarihi: 30.04.2007). (http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/research/QR/QR531.pdf)