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Danimarka ve İsveç İçin İşsizlik Histerisi Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi

Bu çalışma Danimarka ve İsveç için işsizlik histerisi hipotezinin geçerliliğini sınamaktadır. Ampirik analiz için gerekli işsizlik oranı verileri OECD veri tabanından sağlanmıştır. Analiz dönemi (OECD veri tabanındaki veri mevcudiyetine bağlı olarak) Danimarka için 1969–2022 dönemini, İsveç için ise 1960–2022 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada yıllık frekanslı veriler kullanılmıştır. Yıllık frekanslı verilerin seçilme nedeni mevsimsel etkilerden kaçınmaktır. İşsizlik oranı verileri ham haliyle kullanılmamıştır. Analizde lojistik dönüşümlü işsizlik oranları dikkate alınmıştır. Çalışmada lojistik dönüşümlü işsizlik oranı serilerinin durağan olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Danimarka verileri için Kapetanios vd. (2003) tarafından önerilen doğrusal olmayan birim kök testi ve Hepsag (2021) tarafından önerilen doğrusal olmayan birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Hepsag (2021) tarafından önerilen testin Kapetanios vd. (2003) çalışmasında önerilen testten genel olarak daha güçlü olması nedeniyle Hepsag (2021) tarafından önerilen birim kök testinin sonucu dikkate alınmıştır. İsveç için ise hem bazı geleneksel testler [ADF birim kök testi, Elliott vd. (1996) tarafından önerilen birim kök testi, Kwiatkowski vd. (1992) tarafından önerilen durağanlık testi, Phillips ve Perron (1988) tarafından önerilen birim kök testi] hem de Carrion-i-Silvestre ve Sansó (2007) tarafından önerilen ve yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan durağanlık testi uygulanmıştır. Bunlar arasından Carrion-i-Silvestre ve Sansó (2007) tarafından önerilen testin sonucu dikkate alınmıştır. Ampirik analiz neticesinde Danimarka ve İsveç için işsizlik histerisi hipotezinin geçerli olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca çalışmada politika yapıcılar için önemli önerilerde bulunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Birim Kök Testi, İşsizlik Histerisi Hipotezi, İşsizlik Oranı.

Testing the Unemployment Hysteresis Hypothesis for Denmark and Sweden

This study tests the validity of the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis for Denmark and Sweden. Unemployment rate data required for the empirical analysis were obtained from the OECD database. The analysis period (dependent on data available in the OECD database) covers the period 1969–2022 for Denmark and the period 1960–2022 for Sweden. Annual frequency data were used in the study. The reason for choosing annual frequency data is to avoid seasonal effects. Unemployment rate data are not used in their raw form. Logistically transformed unemployment rates were taken into account in the analysis. In the study, it was investigated whether the logistically transformed unemployment rate series were stationary. For Danish data, the nonlinear unit root test suggested in the study of Kapetanios et al. (2003) and the nonlinear unit root test suggested in the study of Hepsag (2021) were applied. Since the test suggested in the study of Hepsag (2021) is generally more powerful than the test suggested in the study of Kapetanios et al. (2003), the result of the unit root test recommended in the study of Hepsag (2021) has been taken into account. For Sweden, both some traditional tests [the ADF unit root test, the unit root test proposed by Elliott et al. (1996), the stationarity test suggested by Kwiatkowski et al. (1992), and the unit root test recommended by Phillips and Perron (1988)] and the stationarity test proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre and Sansó (2007), which takes into account structural breaks, were applied. Among them, the result of the test proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre and Sansó (2007) was taken into account. As a result of the empirical analysis, it was concluded that the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis was not valid for Denmark and Sweden. In addition, essential recommendations were made for policymakers in the study.

Keywords:

Unit Root Test, The Unemployment Hysteresis Hypothesis, Unemployment Rate.,

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