KIRILGAN BEŞLİDE GIDA FİYATLARININ ENFLASYONA GEÇİŞ ETKİSİ

Gıda fiyatları, yurtiçi enflasyon oranının kontrol altına alınmasına yönelik politika kararlarında önemli bir etkiye sahiptir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerinde gıda fiyatlarının tüketici fiyat endeksine geçiş etkisinin ölçülmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Hindistan, Endonezya, Brezilya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye’den oluşan Kırılgan Beşli grubu; yüksek enflasyon oranına sahip, düşük büyüme performansı gösteren ve yüksek cari açık pozisyonları olan ülkeleri tanımlamaktadır. Bu ülkelerin kırılgan ekonomiler olarak tanımlanması, 2013 yılı Ağustos ayında Morgan Stanley’nin ekonomi raporuna dayanmaktadır. Amerikan Merkez Bankası (FED) 2013 yılı Mayıs ayında tahvil alımını azaltacağını duyurduktan sonra Morgan Stanley, aynı yılın Ağustos ayında FED’in bu açıklamalarından en fazla etkilenen ülkeleri kırılgan ekonomiler olarak adlandırmıştır. Bu doğrultuda bu çalışma 2013:08-2020:12 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Statik ve dinamik panel veri analizi (Genelleştirilmiş Moment Yöntemi; GMM)’nin kullanıldığı çalışmada aylık bazda yurtiçi genel fiyat eğilimini yansıtan FAO tüketici fiyat endeksi ve FAO gıda fiyat endeksi değişkenleri kullanılmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerinde ilgili dönemde gıda fiyatlarının tüketici fiyat endeksini belirlemede önemli ve güçlü bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

FAO Gıda Fiyat Endeksi, Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi, Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi, GMM

THE PASS-THROUGH EFFECT OF FOOD PRICES TO INFLATION IN FRAGILE FIVE

Food prices have a significant impact on policy decisions to control the domestic inflation rate. In this direction, the present study aimed to measure the pass-through effect of food prices to consumer price index in Fragile Five countries. The Fragile Five, consisting of India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey, is used to define countries with high inflation rates, low growth performance and high current account deficits. The definition of these countries as fragile economies is based on Morgan Stanley’s economic report in August 2013. After the Federal Reserve (FED) announced that it would reduce its bond purchases in May 2013, Morgan Stanley named the countries most affected by the FED's statements as fragile economies in August of the same year. For that reason, this study covered the period between 2013M8 and 2020M12. Static and dynamic panel data analysis (Generalized Moment Method; GMM) is used in the study, and FAO consumer price index and FAO food price index variables, which reflect the domestic general price trend on a monthly basis, are used. The findings showed that food prices had a significant and strong effect on determining the consumer price index in the Fragile Five countries in the relevant period.

Keywords:

FAO Gıda Fiyat Endeksi, Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi, Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi, GMM,

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