BARIŞÇIL DIŞ POLİTİKA “EVRİMSEL KARARLI”MI?: DEMOKRATİK BARIŞ TEORİSİNİN RASYONALİST PERSPEKTİFTEN BİR ANALİZİ

Demokratik barış teorisi, demokrasilerin birbirleriyle savaşma eğiliminde olmadıklarını öne sürmektedir. Demokrasi ve barış arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi sorgulayan kimi çalışmalar ise demokrasilerin savaşa en az demokrasi-dışı rejimler kadar yatkın olduğunu öne sürmektedir. Demokratik barış teorisine yönelik eleştirel çalışmaların aksine, bu çalışma demokrasilerin barışçıl dış politikaya yatkın olduğu argümanını destekleyen bir yaklaşım sunmaktadır. Çalışma demokrasilerin barışçıllığını ‘’oyun-teorik’’ araçların yanı sıra ‘’evrim’’ literatüründe önemli yer tutan bazı kavramlardan da yararlanılan bir metodoloji çerçevesinde tartışmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın ilk bölümü iki farklı rejim tipinin (demokrasiler ve demokrasi-dışı rejimler) rasyonalite anlayışına, belirsizlik karşısındaki tutumlarına ve karar-yapımı mekanizmalarının potansiyel hataların giderilmesine ne ölçüde izin verdiğine odaklanmaktadır. Çalışmanın ikinci bölümü ise demokrasilerin demokrasi-dışı rejimler karşısındaki avantajlarına rağmen uluslararası sistemde kendisine alternatif olan rejimler karşısında niçin baskın konumda olamadığını tartışmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda çalışma demokrasi-dışı rejimlerin ortak tehdit algısı, coğrafi uzaklık, statüko memnuniyeti ve her zaman saldırgan bir strateji izlemenin yüksek maliyetlere yol açması gibi çeşitli dışsal sebeplerden dolayı demokrasileri; demokrasilerin ise rakiplerine karşı caydırıcılıklarını sürdürebilmek için demokrasi-dışı rejimleri taklit etmesi konusunu ele almaktadır. Çalışma hem demokrasilerin barışçıllığını sorgulayan yaklaşımlara yanıt niteliğinde bazı ampirik ve teorik karşı-argümanlar öne sürmekte hem de demokratik barış teorisinin geçerliliğini destekleyici nitelikteki argümanları sistematik bir çerçevede gözden geçirmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Demokratik Barış Teorisi, Oyun Teorisi, Evrimsel Kararlılık, Rasyonalite, Belirsizlik

IS PEACEFUL FOREIGN POLICY “EVOLUTIONARILYSTABLE”?: AN ANALYSIS OF DEMOCRATIC PEACE THEORY FROM RATIONALIST PERSPECTIVE

Democratic peace theory posits that democracies are not disposed to fight each other. Some critics of democratic peace theory questioning the causal relationship between democracy and peace argue that democracies are as ‘’war-prone’’ as non-democracies. Contrary to criticism of democratic peace theory, this article suggests an approach supporting the argument of predisposition of democracies towards a peaceful foreign policy. The article discusses peacefulness of democracies within the frame of a methodological approach including some guiding concepts borrowed from ‘’evolutionary’’ literature as well as ‘’game-theoretical’’ tools. In this context, first section of the article focuses on two different types of regime’s (democracies and non-democracies) understanding of rationality, their attitude towards ‘’uncertainty’’ and the extent to which their decision-making mechanism enabling potential mistakes to be resolved. Second section of the article discusses why democracies are not able to dominate their alternative regimes in the international system although they have several advantages over non-democracies. The article therefore attempts to address both the issue of non-democracies imitating democracies by reason of various external factors such as common perception of threats, geographical distance, being satisfaction with the status quo and high costs of following an aggressive strategy continuously, as well as democracies imitating non democracies in order to maintain their deterrence against their opponents. The article both suggests some empirical and theoretical counter-arguments in response to approaches that question the peacefulness of democracies, and systematically reviews the arguments that support the validity of democratic peace theory.

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