Türkiye’de e-ticaret difüzyon patikası: Ajan bazlı modelleme

Dijitalleşme süreci toplumu etkileyerek sosyal düzeyde değişim yaratırken ekonomik hayatın da yeni bir boyuta evrimini sağlamaktadır. Dijital dönüşümü ivmelendiren önemli gelişmelerden birisi internetin ortaya çıkmasıdır. Küresel düzeyde internet ağının ortaya çıkması e-ticaret kavramını da beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de tüketiciler arasında e-ticaret difüzyon patikası şeklinin ve dinamiklerinin belirlenmesidir. Çalışmada ajan bazlı modelleme ile ekonometrik yöntemlerden oluşan hibrit bir model kullanılmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre bireylerin e-ticarete adaptasyonunda demografik ve hane özelliklerinin yanı sıra bilgi difüzyon süreçleri temelinde ortaya çıkan toplumsal kültür ve aile kültürü belirleyici olmaktadır. Türkiye’de e-ticaret difüzyon patikası S-şekline sahiptir. E-ticaretin algılanan işlem maliyetinin düşürülmesi ve internet kullanımının desteklenmesi e-ticarete geçiş sürecini hızlandırarak daha dik bir difüzyon patikasının ortaya çıkmasını sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

E-ticaret, İnovasyon Difüzyonu, Ajan Bazlı Modelleme, Simülasyon Modelleme

E-Commerce diffusion path in Türkiye: Agent-based modeling

While the digitalization process creates social change by affecting society, it also provides the evolution of economic life to a new dimension. One of the important developments accelerating digital transformation is the emergence of the internet. The emergence of the internet network at the global level has brought the concept of e-commerce with it. The aim of this study is to determine the shape and dynamics of the e-commerce diffusion path among consumers in Turkey. A hybrid model consisting of agent-based modeling and econometric methods is used in the study. According to findings, in addition to demographic and household characteristics, social culture and family culture that emerged on the basis of information diffusion processes are decisive in the adaptation of individuals to e-commerce. The e-commerce diffusion path in Turkey has an S-shape. Reducing the perceived transaction cost of e-commerce and supporting the use of the internet accelerates the transition to e-commerce, resulting in a steeper diffusion path.

Keywords:

E-commerce, Innovation Diffusion, Agent Based Modeling, Simulation Modeling,

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