Nükleer çok kutuplu bir dünyaya doğru ve bunun yayılma etkileri

Öz Bu makale, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı sonrasında uluslararası yapıda meydana gelen değişiklikleri ve bunun Avrupa'nın güvenliğine ve dünyaya etkilerini incelemektedir. Savaşın Avrupa ve dünya güvenliği üzerindeki en büyük etkisi, uluslararası ilişkilerin nükleer boyutunun ciddi bir şekilde yeniden canlanmasıdır. Bu makale, AB'nin en önemli iki askeri ve ekonomik aktörü olan Fransa ve Almanya'nın stratejik belgeleri ile ABD'nin stratejik belgelerini incelemektedir. Rusya’nın nükleer silah kullanma tehdidinin de etkisiyle İsveç ve Finlandiya tarafsız konumlarını bırakarak NATO üyesi olmak için başvurmuşlar, Danimarka ise Avrupa Ortak Savunma ve Güvenlik Politikasına katılma kararı almıştır. Finlandiya, 4 Nisan 2023'te NATO'nun 31. üyesi oldu. İsveç'in NATO üyeliğinin statüsü, 11-12 Temmuz'da yapılacak NATO Zirvesi'nde görüşülecektir. Bu makalede neo-realizm teorisi ışığı altında Kuzey Atlantik Antlaşması Örgütü (NATO)'nün en güçlü devleti olan ABD ile Avrupa Birliği (AB)'nin iki güçlü ülkesi olan Fransa ve Almanya’nın milli güvenlik, milli savunma strateji belgeleri ve gözden geçirme raporları incelenmiştir. Söz konusu ülkelerin Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı sonrası 2022 yılı milli güvenlik ve strateji belgelerinde ve gözden geçirme raporlarında uluslararası yapının nükleer çok kutuplu bir yapıya evrilmesi nedeniyle gelecek on yılda daha karmaşık bir uluslararası ilişkiler gündemi ile yüzleşileceği sonucuna varılmıştır. Uluslararası yapının, iki kutuplu yapıdan çok kutuplu nükleer yapıya dönüşmesi nedeniyle yeni nükleer çok kutuplu yapı daha karmaşık ve tehlikeli görünmektedir. Tarihte ilk defa olan bu nükleer çok kutuplu uluslararası yapı karşısında devletler ya bir nükleer şemsiye altına girmek zorunda kalacaklar ya da kendi nükleer silahlarını oluşturmaya yöneleceklerdir. Nükleer yayılma riskini de artıran bu durum Türkiye, Suudi Arabistan, Mısır, Japonya ve Güney Kore’yi de etkileyebilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ukrayna Savaşı, Nükleer Çok Kutuplu Yapı, Neo-realizm, Nükleer Risk

Towards a nuclear multipolar world and its spillover effects

This article analyzes the changes in the international structure after the Russia-Ukraine War and its impact on Europe’s security and spillover effects. The major impact of the war on the security of Europe and the world is the serious reawakening of the nuclear dimension of international relations. This article examines the strategic documents of France and Germany, the two most important military and economic actors of the EU, and the strategic documents of the U.S.A. With the threat of Russian nuclear weapons, Sweden and Finland abandoned their neutrality and applied it to become NATO members. Finland became NATO's 31st member on 4 April 2023. The status of Sweden's NATO membership will be discussed at the NATO Summit to be held on 11-12 July. This study reviews national security and defense strategy documents and reports of U.S.A.-the most powerful state in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), France, and Germany- two powerful states in the European Union (EU) in light of neo-realism. In the post-Russia-Ukraine War analysis of 2022 documents and reports of the aforementioned countries, we will see more complicated and security-oriented international relations in the next decade because of the transition to a nuclear multipolar international structure. The new international structure seems more complicated because nuclear multipolar aspect rather than the bipolar one. States will either seek a nuclear umbrella or develop nuclear weapons in the face of the first nuclear multipolar international structure. This may also affect Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Japan, and South Korea. This suggests nuclear proliferation risk.

Keywords:

Ukranian War, Nuclear Multipolar Structure, Neo-realism, Nuclear Risk,

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