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Frekans Oranı Metodu ve Bayesyen Olasılık Modeli Kullanılarak Samsun İli Vezirköprü İlçesinin Heyelan Duyarlılık Haritasının Üretilmesi

Türkiye’de yaygınlık ve sıklık açısından en çok görülen doğal afetler heyelan ve taşkınlardır. Söz konusuetkiler küçük ve orta ölçekli haritalarda araştırılması gereken lokal etkiye sahip olup ekonomik ve sosyalsonuçları açısından tekrarlı olarak incelenmesi gereken afetlerdir. Buna ek olarak Türkiye, bu afetlerinekonomik ve sosyal sonuçları açısından büyük risk taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Orta Karadenizbölgesinde yer alan Vezirköprü İlçesinin hem iklim değişikliğinden etkilenmesi hem de Kuzey AnadoluFay Zonu’nun içinde olması nedeniyle heyelan duyarlılık haritası üretilmiştir. Çalışmada heyelanduyarlılık haritalarının hazırlanması için istatistik modeller kullanılmıştır. Bu amaçla tümevarım olarakBayesyen Model (BM-WOE) ve tümdengelim olarak ise Frekans oranı (FR) modeli kullanılmıştır. Temelparametrelerin çözümlenmesinde yükseklik, eğim, bakı, eğrilik (plan ve profil eğriliği), yola, drenajağlarına ve faya yakınlık, topografik nemlilik indeksi ve jeoloji kullanılmıştır. Üretilen duyarlılık haritaları;çok yüksek, yüksek, orta, düşük ve çok düşük derecede duyarlı alanları gösterecek şekilde 5 sınıfaayrılmıştır. Heyelan envanter haritasında yer alan 68 adet heyelan içinden 21 adeti kontrol amacıylaayrılmış olup, heyelan duyarlılık haritalarının güvenilirliğini test etmek için üretilen duyarlılık haritalarıile karşılaştırılmıştır. Nihai değerlendirmede kontrol heyelanlarının üretilen haritalar ile FR için %57 veBayesyen Model (BM-WOE) için %80.9 oranında uyumlu olduğu görülmüştür.

Production of Landslide Susceptibility Map of Vezirköprü District (Samsun) By Using Frequency Ratio Method and Bayesian Probability Model

In Turkey, landslides and floods are having the most impact in terms of prevalence and frequency of natural disasters. These impacts have local impacts need to be investigated in small and medium scale maps, and the mentioned disasters should be examined repeatedly in terms of their economic and social consequences. In addition to that, Turkey is under at greater risk in terms of the economic and social consequences of these disasters. In this study, landslide susceptibility map has been produced in Vezirköprü District in the Central Black Sea Region, both because of being affected by climate change and being in the North Anatolian Fault Zone. In the study, statistical models were used for the preparation of landslide susceptibility maps. For this purpose, Bayesian and Frequency ratio model were used as induction and deduction, respectively. Elevation, slope, aspect, curvature (plan and profile curvature), geology, topographic wetness index proximity to road, stream and fault were used to analyze for production of landslide susceptibility. Classification is applied as the “very high, high, moderate, low and non-susceptible” into risky areas. The 21 ones from 68 landslide inventories from were separated for control purposes and compared with 47 landslide inventories applied Bayesian and Frequency ratio (FR) models to test the reliability of the landslide susceptibility map. As a result, it has been ascertained that the produced landslide susceptibility map is consistent with the control landslides with 57 % and 80.9% in total for FR and Bayesian Model, respectively.

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