TÜRKİYE’NİN KALKINMIŞ ÜLKELERE VE ORTA DOĞU-KUZEY AFRİKA ÜLKELERİNE İHRACATI: KARŞILAŞTIRMALI YER ÇEKİMİ ANALİZİ

Türkiye’nin kalkınmış ülkelere ve Orta-Doğu Kuzey Afrika ülkelerine olan ihracatı iki ayrı panel yer çekimi denklemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Denklemlerin tahmininde literatürdeki çeşitli tahmin yöntemleri kullanılmış, hem yöntemler arası farklılıklar, hem de bölgeler arası farklılıklar tartışılmıştır. Ayrıca, Türkiye’nin her bir ülkeye ihracatı için potansiyel tahmini yapılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Türkiye’nin kalkınmış ülkelere ihracatı en çok ticaret ortağının kişi başına milli gelirinden etkilenirken, Orta Doğu-Kuzey Afrika ülkelerine olan ihracatı en çok Türkiye’nin milli gelirinden ve ticaret ortağının nüfusundan etkilenmektedir. Uzaklık, her iki ülke grubunda da ihracatı azaltıcı bir faktördür. Gümrük Birliği Türkiye’nin ihracatını önemli ölçüde artıran bir faktördür. Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmaları, kalkınmış ülkelere ihracatı artırıcı rol oynarken, Orta Doğu-Kuzey Afrika ülkelerine olan ihracat üzerinde anlamlı etkiye sahip değildir.

TURKEY’S EXPORTS TO ADVANCED COUNTRIES AND MIDDLE EAST-NORTH AFRICAN COUNTRIES: A COMPARATIVE GRAVITY ANALYSIS

Exports of Turkey to Advanced Countries and Middle East-North African Countries are analysed in two separate panel gravity models. In appraisal of the models, various estimation methodologies used in the literature is employed, and differences between estimation methods, as well as differences among regions are discussed. In addition, Turkey’s export potential to each country is calculated. According to the results, Turkey’s exports to Advanced Countries are affected mostly from GDP per capita of the trade partner while Turkey’s exports to Middle East-North African Countries are affected from Turkey’s GDP and population of the trade partner. Distance is an attenuator factor for exports in both regions. Customs Union is a factor increasing Turkish exports significantly. Although Free Trade Agreements (FTA) affect exports to Advanced Countries positively, FTAs do not have a significant effect on exports to Middle East-North African Countries.

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