TÜRKİYE’YE GIDA SEKTÖRÜ’NDE YAPILAN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI SERMAYE YATIRIMLARININ EKONOMETRİK ANALİZİ

Bu makalede, Türkiye’ye gıda sektöründe yapılan doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları, ARDL metodu ile 2009 - 2016 yılları arası dönemde aylık veriler kullanılarak analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada; bağımlı değişken olarak doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ve bağımsız değişkenler olarak da ticaret açıklığı, döviz kuru, ihracat fiyatı ve ücret oranı verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, incelenen faktörlerden ticaret açıklığı ve ihracat fiyatı gıda sektörüne yapılan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarını pozitif etkilerken, ücret oranı arttıkça yabancı sermaye yatırımları azaltmaktadır. Hata düzeltme teriminin katsayısı, istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve beklenildiği gibi negatiftir. Bu değer, kısa dönemde meydana gelecek şoklar nedeniyle uzun dönemde meydana gelen dengeden sapmanın %92’sinin bir dönem sonra yani bir ay sonra dengeye yakınsayarak düzeleceğini belirtmektedir.

ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN FOOD PRODUCT SECTOR IN TURKEY

This paper analyzes the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the food products sector in Turkey. AnAutoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to the monthly data over the period of January 2009 toDecember 2016. In the model, FDI inflows are modeled as a function of the degree of openness, exchange rate,export price, and wage rate. The empirical results confirm there is an evidence of a long-run equilibriumrelationship among these variables in Turkey. Findings indicate that the degree of openness and export price havea positive sign and are statistically significant, while the wage rate has a negative sign and is statistically significant.The error correction term (ECT) of the estimated model is negative (−0,92) and statistically significant whichindicates that deviations of actual FDI from the previous period’s shock will be converged to the long-runequilibrium.

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