THIRWALL KANUNU’NUN BRIC-T ÜLKELERİ İÇİN İNCELENMESİ

Thirwall Kanunu’na göre dışa açık bir ekonomide büyüme oranını kısıtlayan ana faktör ödemeler dengesi bilançosudur. Bu çalışmadaki amaç, Thirwall Kanunu’nun 2000-2015 yıllarını kapsayan bir dönemde geçerliliğin BRIC-T (Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Çin, Türkiye) ülkeleri için sınanmasıdır. Çalışmanın ampirik kısmında panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Değişkenlerin yatay-kesit bağımlılığı içerip içermediği ya da heterojen olup olmadıkları; Delta ve CDlm gibi ön testler ile test edilmiştir. Serilerin durağanlığı ikinci kuşak birim kök testleri ile ispat edildikten sonra uzun dönem nedensellik ilişkisi Westerund Durbin-H testi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, Thirwall Kanunu BRIC-T ekonomilerinde geçerli değildir.

EXAMINATION OF THIRLWALL’S LAW FOR BRIC-T COUNTRIES

According to the Thirlwall’s Law, the main factor which restricts the economic growth in an open economy isthe balance of payments. The aim of this study is to investigate the validity of the Thirlwall Law for BRIC-T(Brazil, Russi India, China, Turkey) countries for the period between 2000 and 2015. Panel data analysis hasbeen used in the empirical part of the study. Heterogeneity (vice versa) and cross-sectional dependency ofthe variables are examined with some preliminary tests. Respectively, Delta test and CDlm test have beenapplied. After proving the stability of the variables with second generation panel unit root tests, the long-termcointegration relationship is estimated by Westerlund Durbin-H test. According to the results, Thirlwall’s Lawis not valid for BRIC-T economies.

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