DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIM VE TURİZM ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ

Bu çalışma, 1995-2015 döneminde 113 ülkede, doğrudan yabancı yatırım (DYY) ve turizm arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemek için panel veri regresyon modeli uygulanmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra, kâğıt tüketim, ticarete açıklık ve insan sermayesi gibi göstergeleri denetlerken potansiyel nedensel ilişki ve turizm endüstrisi ile DYY arasındaki eşşizliği araştırmaya çalışmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, turizmin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki önemli(olumlu) etkisini göstermektedir. Ayrıca, üç kontrol değişkeninin doğrudan yabancı yatırımların önemli bir belirleyicisi olduğu bildirilmektedir. Turizmden DYY'ye uzanan tek yönlü nedensel ilişki rapor edilmekte, bu da turizmin bu ülkelerin DYY'lerinin gelişmesine olanak sağladığını göstermektedir. Tüketim, ticaret açıklığı ve beşeri sermayenin de DYY ile tek yönlü bir nedensel ilişkiye sahip olduğu bildirilmektedir. Westerlund ECM paneli eş-bütünleşme testi, değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme üzerindeki karışık sonuçları gösterir. Elde edilen sonuçları göz önünde bulundurarak, hükümet bu ilişkiyi, ekonominin sürdürülebilir büyümesini sağlamak ve politika imaları için önemli bir araç olarak değerlendirebilmektedir.

CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND TOURISM

This paper applies panel data regression model to investigate the relationship between foreign directinvestment (FDI) and tourism in 113 countries during the period 1995-2015. Besides this, the paper attemptsto research the potential causal relationship and cointegration between tourism industry and FDI whilecontrolling for indicators such as consumption, trade openness and human capital. The obtained resultsindicate a significant positive impact of tourism on FDI. Moreover, three control variables are reported to bea significant determinant of foreign direct investments. The unidirectional causal relationship running fromtourism to FDI is reported, implying that tourism allows these countries to expand their FDI. Consumption,trade openness and human capital are also reported to have a unidirectional causal relationship with FDI.Westerlund ECM panel cointegration test indicates mixed results on the cointegration between variables.Taking into account the obtained results, government can consider this relationship as an important tool forpolicy implication to achieve sustainable growth of the economy as well.

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