DO INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT? EVIDENCE FROM 20 EMERGING ECONOMIES

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde enflasyon ve ekonomik büyümenin genç işsizliği nasıl etkilediğini tartışmaktır. Bu bağlamda çalışmada enflasyon ve ekonomik büyümenin genç işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi 1991-2016 dönemi dikkate alınarak 20 gelişmekte olan ülke (Brezilya, Çek Cumhuriyeti, Çin, Filipinler, Endonezya, Güney Afrika, Hindistan, Kolombiya, Macaristan, Malezya, Meksika, Mısır, Pakistan, Peru, Polonya, Rusya, Şili, Tayland, Türkiye ve Yunanistan) için test edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki ikinci nesil panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik testleriyle araştırılmıştır. Westerlund (2008) tarafından geliştirilen Durbin-Hausman panel eşbütünleşme test sonuçlarına göre, değişkenler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, Durbin-Hausman (2012) panel nedensellik test sonuçları, hem enflasyon ile genç işsizlik arasında, hem de ekonomik büyüme ile genç işsizlik arasında istatistik olarak anlamlı olan iki yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlara dayanarak enflasyonun ve ekonomik büyümenin genç işsizliği gerçek anlamda etkilediği ve bu etkinin negatif yönde olduğu söylenebilmektedir. Bunun anlamı ise çalışma kapsamındaki gelişmekte olan ülkelerde enflasyonda ve ekonomik büyümede meydana gelecek pozitif gelişmelerin genç işsizliği azaltmada etkili olduğudur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Genç İşsizlik, Enflasyon, Ekonomik Büyüme, Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomiler

DO INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT? EVIDENCE FROM 20 EMERGING ECONOMIES

The main objective of this paper is to discuss how inflation and economic growth affects youth unemployment in emerging economies. Within this study, the effect of inflation and economic growth on youth unemployment was tested for 20 emerging economies (Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia Federation, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey) with the data covering the period of 1991–2016. The relationship between the variables was tested via second generation panel cointegration and panel causality tests. According to the findings of Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test by Westerlund (2008), there is a cointegration relationship between variables. In addition, Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test results have indicated that there exists statistically significant bidirectional causality between inflation and youth unemployment and also between economic growth and youth unemployment. Based on these results, it is possible to say that inflation and economic growth substantially affect youth unemployment and the direction of the effect is negative on youth unemployment. That means positive developments in inflation and economic growth lead to a decline in youth unemployment rates for selected emerging economies.

Keywords:

Youth unemployment, Inflation, Economic growth, Emerging economies,

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