Türkiye'de maliye politikası konjonktür yanlısı mı?

Bu çalışmada 1998:1-2012:3 döneminde Türkiyede maliye politikasının konjonktürelliği literatürde yaygın olarak kullanılan iki yöntemle incelenmektedir. Basit formdaki regresyonlara göre reel toplam hükümet harcamaları ve reel faiz dışı hükümet harcamaları konjonktür karşıtı görünse de ilgili katsayıların istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Üretim açığı, borç stoku ve bağımlı değişkenin bir gecikmeli değerine bağımsız değişken olarak yer verilen regresyon analizi bulgularına göre birincil fazlanın konjonktür karşıtı, hükümet gelirlerinin ise konjonktür yanlısı olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Borç stokuyla ilgili katsayının, bağımlı değişken olarak birincil fazla kullanıldığında istatiksel açıdan anlamlı olduğu bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, maliye politikasında ataletin önemli olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır

Is fiscal policy procyclical in Turkey?

This study examines the cyclicality of fiscal policy in Turkey over the period 1998:1-2012:3 by using two empirical methods which are frequently employed in the literature. A simple regression shows that reel total government expenditures and total government expenditures minus interest payments seem countercyclical but the coefficients are not statistically significant. When output gap, public debt stock and lagged dependent variable are used as independent variables, we find that primary surplus is countercyclical while government revenues are procyclical. Coefficient on the debt stock is statistically significant when primary surplus used as dependent variable. Also it seems that there is a strong inertia in fiscal policy.

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