Türkiye’de Yenilenebilir Ve Birincil Enerji Talebinin Büyüme Üzerindeki Uzun Dönem Etkileri

En temel amaç olarak ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınma çabaları, dünya ölçeğinde tüm ülkelerin enerji talebini artırmaktadır. Artan talebin önemli kısmı birincil enerji kaynaklarından karşılanmakla birlikte, özellikle son yıllarda yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları üretim ve tüketimi de giderek artmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, yenilenebilir ve birincil enerji talebinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini ampirik olarak analiz etmek, değişkenler arası nedensellik ilişkilerini belirlemektir. Türkiye’nin 1965-2017 dönemi verileri kullanılarak yapılan analizlerde, Johansen eşbütünleşme ve Dolado-Lütkepohl nedensellik testi ile yapısal vektör hata düzeltme modeli kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, değişkenler arasında hem bir eşbütünleşme hem de enerji tüketiminden ekonomik büyümeye doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Bir başka ifade ile, literatürde ifade edilen büyüme hipotezini destekleyen bir sonuç elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca yapısal model sonuçlarına göre, yenilenebilir ve birincil enerji tüketimi uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif etkiler yaratmaktadır.

The Long Run Effects Of Renewable And Prımary Energy Demand On Growth In Turkey

As the main objective, economic growth and development efforts increase the energy demand of all countries worldwide. Although an important part of the increasing demand is met by primary energy sources, the production and the consumption of renewable energy sources have risen in recent years. The aim of this study is to empirically analyze the effects of renewable and primary energy demand on economic growth and to determine causality relationships among related variables. In the analysis conducted using Turkey's 1965-2017 period data, Johansen co-integration and Dolado-Lütkepohl causality test with structural vector error correction model were used. According to the results, there is both co-integration relation on variables and unidirectional causality from energy demand to economic growth. In other words, a result that supports the growth hypothesis has found. Furthermore, according to the structural model results, renewable and primary energy consumption has positive effects on economic growth in the long run.

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