Enflasyonist Koşullardaki Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Bir Para Talebi Modeli Çalışması

İstikrarlı bir para talebi fonksiyonu, makroekonomideki gelişmelerin yorumlanması ve tahmin edilmesindeoldukça yararlı bir araç olduğu için üzerinde sürekli çalışılan bir konudur. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de paratalebi ile gayri safi yurtiçi hâsıla, tüketici fiyatları endeksi, döviz mevduatları ve mevduat faiz oranlarıarasındaki ilişkiler, 1988-2004 yıllarına ilişkin, 67 gözlemden oluşan üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak zamanserisi analizi ile incelenmektedir. Gelir ve faiz oranlarındaki değişikliklere karşı para talebi duyarlılığı vezaman içinde para talebi fonksiyonunun istikrarı, çalışmanın ana konusudur. Bu kapsamda çalışmadaTürkiye'de istikrarlı bir para talebi denkleminin olup olmadığını belirlemek ve varsa, para talebinin gelirve faiz oranı esnekliklerini tahmin etmek amaçlanmıştır. Ayrıca yeni bir para talebi modelinin yenidentanımlanması da çalışmanın unsurlarından birisidir. Ampirik sonuçlar, Türkiye için durağan bir paratalebi fonksiyonunu desteklemektedir. M2, ekonomik olarak nominal büyüme oranına, enflasyona ve faizoranına anlamlı ölçüde duyarlı bulunmuştur.

Study of a Money Demand Model for the Turkish Economy in Inflationary Conditions

A stable money demand function is a subject of constant study, as it is a very useful tool for interpreting and forecasting developments in the macroeconomy. In this study, the relationships between money demand and gross domestic product, consumer price index, foreign currency deposits, and deposit interest rates in Turkey are analyzed by time series analysis using quarterly data consisting of 67 observations for 1988- 2004 is being examined. The sensitivity of money demand to changes in income and interest rates and the stability of the money demand function over time are the main subjects of the study. It aims to determine whether there is a stable money demand equation in Turkey and estimate income and interest rate elasticities of money demand if any. Besides, redefining a new money demand model is aimed. The empirical results support a stable money demand function for Turkey. M2 was found to be significantly sensitive to the nominal growth rate, inflation, and interest rate.

PDF

___

Akıncı, Ö. (2003). Modeling The Demand for Currency Issued in Turkey. Central Bank Review, 1, ss. 1-25.
Algan, N. ve Gencer, S. (2011). Türkiye’de Para Talebi Fonksiyonun Modellenmesi. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü̈ Dergisi, 20(1), ss. 195-212.
Altıntaş, H. (2008). Türkiye’de Para Talebinin İstikrarı ve Sınır Testi Yaklaşımıyla Öngörülmesi: 1985-2006. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 30, ss. 15-46.
Arango, S. ve Nadiri M. I. (1981). Demand for Money in Open Economies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 7(1), ss. 69-83.
Avouyi‐Dovi, S., Drumetz, F. ve Sahuc, J.‐G. (2012). The Money Demand Function for the Euro Area: Some Empirical Evidence. Bulletin of Economic Research, 64(3), ss. 377-392.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (2001). How Stable Is M2 Money Demand Function in Japan? Japan and the World Economy, 13, ss. 455-461.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Karacal, M. (2006). The Demand for Money in Turkey and Currency Substitution. Applied Economics Letters, 13, ss. 635-642.
Baumol, W. (1952). The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 66(4), ss. 545-556.
Beguna, A., Skorohoda, N., Sloka, I. ve Tkacevs, O. (2002). Money Demand in Latvia. Euro Faculty Working Paper in Economics No 15, University of Riga, Riga.
Bredin, D. ve Cuthbertson, K. (2001). Money Demand in the Czech Republic since Transition. The Journal of Policy Reform, 4(4), ss. 271-290
Brunner, K. ve Meltzer, A. H. (1963). Predicting Velocity: Implications for Theory and Policy. Journal of Finance, 18, ss. 319-354.
Brunner, K. ve Meltzer, A. H. (1964). Some Further Investigations of Demand and Supply Functions for Money. Journal of Finance, 19, ss. 240-283.
Buch, C.M. (2001). Money Demand in Hungary and Poland. Applied Economics, 33(8), ss. 989- 999.
Carrera, C. (2016). Long-Run Money Demand in Latin American Countries: A Nonstationary Panel Data Approach. Monetaria, 4(1), ss. 121-152.
Cuevas, M. A. (2002). Money Demand in Venezuela: Multiple Cycle Extraction in a Cointegration Framework, World Bank.
Delatte, A.-L., Fouquau, J. ve Holz, C. A. (2011). Explaining Money Demand in China during the Transition from a Centrally Planned to a Market-Based Monetary System. BOFIT Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition Discussion Papers 27.
Doğru, B. ve Recepoğlu, M. (2013). Dynamic Analysis of Money Demand Function in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(9), ss. 20-27.
Dreger, C., Reimers, H.-E. ve Roffia, B. (2007). Long-Run Money Demand in the New EU Member States with Exchange Rate Effect. Eastern European Economics, 45(2), ss. 75-94.
Engle, Robert F. ve Granger, Clive W. J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica. 55(2), ss. 251-276.
Ewing, B. T. ve Payne, J. E. (1999). Long-Run Money Demand in Chile. Journal of Economic Development, 24(2), ss. 177-190.
Fisher, I. ve Brown, H. G. (1911). The Purchasing Power of Money; Its Determination and Relation to Credit, Interest and Crises. New York: The Macmillan Company.
Friedman, M. (1956). The Quantity Theory of Money: A Restatement. M. Friedman (Ed.). Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Friedman, M. (1959). The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Result. Journal of Political Economy, 67(4), ss. 327-351.
Friedman, M. ve Schwartz, A. J. (1963). Money and Business Cycles. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 45, ss. 32-64.
Gencer, S. ve Arısoy, İ. (2013). Türkiye’de Uzun Dönem Geniş Para (M2Y) Talebinin Tahmini: Zamanla Değişen Katsayılar Yönteminden Bulgular. Ege Akademik Bakış, 13(4), ss. 515-526.
Güney, A. (2017). Türkiye’nin Modern Para Talebi Fonksiyonu: Gelir Bileşenleri, Ekonomik ve Parasal Belirsizlik. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(1), ss. 485-504.
Hafer, R. W. ve Jansen, D. W. (1991). The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23(2), ss. 155-168.
Halıcıoğlu, F. ve Uğur, M. (2005). On Stability of the Demand for Money in a Developing OECD Country: The Case of Turkey. Global Business and Economic Review, 7(2/3), ss. 203-213.
Hume, D. (1752). Of Interest; Of Money. Eugene F. Miller (Ed.). Essays, Moral, Political, and Literary. Indianapolis: Liberty Fund.
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. New York: Harcourt, Brace.
Kjosevski, J. (2013). The Determinants and Stability of Money Demand in the Republic of Macedonia. Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal, 31(1), ss. 35-54.
Kogar, Ç. (1995). Cointegration Test for Money Demand the Case for Turkey and Israel. CBRT Research Department Discussion Paper, No: 9514, May, 1-18.
Robert, E. L. Jr. (1988). Money Demand in the United States: A Quantitative Review. Arnegie - Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 29, ss. 137-167.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), ss. 77-91.
Meltzer, A. H. (1963). The Demand for Money: The Evidence from the Time Series. Journal of Political Economy, 71(3), ss. 219-246.
Mill, J. S. (1848). Principles of Political Economy. New York: D. Appleton and Company.
Miller, M. ve Orr, D. (1966). A model of the demand for money by firms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 81, ss. 413-435.
Mulligan, C. B., Sala-I-Martin, X., Mankiw, N. G. ve Rotemberg, J. J. (1992). U.S. Money Demand: Surprising Cross-Sectional Estimates. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, ss. 285-343.
Mutluer, D. ve Barlas, Y. (2002). Modeling the Turkish Broad Money Demand. Central Bank Review, 2, ss. 55-75.
Pigou V. (1917). The Value of Money. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 32, ss.38-65; Reprinted in A. C. Pigou: Journal Papers 1902-1922. D. Collard (Ed.). London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Özcan, B. ve Arı, A. (2013). Para Talebinin Belirleyenleri ve İstikrarı Üzerine Bir Uygulama: Türkiye Örneği. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 20(2), ss. 105-120.
Özdemir, K. A. ve Turner, P. (2004). The Demand for Base Money in Turkey: Implications for Inflation and Seigniorage. The CBRT Research Department Working Paper, No: 4/12.
Saatçioğlu, C. ve Korap, H. L. (2005). The Turkish Broad Money Demand. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(1), ss. 139-165.
Şahin, A. (2013). Para Talebinin Tar Modeli ile Tahmini: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Kamuİş, 13(2) ss. 35-70.
Teigen, R. L. (1964). Demand and Supply Functions for Money in the United States: Some Structural Estimates. Econometrica, 32(4), ss. 476- 509.
Tüzün, O., Ceylan, F. ve Ekinci, R. (2017). Türkiye’de Para Talebinin İstikrarı: Zamana Göre Değişen Eşbütünleşme Testi. Social Sciences Studies Journal, 3(12), ss. 2252-2260.
Walsh, Carl E. (1998). Monetary Theory and Policy, Cambridge: The MIT Press.
Wang, Y. (2017). Demand for Money in China with Currency Substitution: Evidence from the Recent Data. Modern Economy, 8, ss. 484-493.
Yi, G. (1993). Towards Estimating the Demand for Money in China. Economics of Planning, 26, ss. 243-270.