Türkiye'nin stratejik konumu, her geçen gün hem transit, hem de hedef bir ülke olarak ön plana çıkmasına sebep olmaktadır. Bu nedenle sınır güvenliği önemli bir gereksinim halini almıştır. Türkiye'nin son birkaç yıl içinde en önemli sınırı niteliğini kazanan Hatay-Suriye sınırının güvenlik riski duyarlılık analizinin yapılmasının amaçlandığı bu çalışma, sınır ihlalleri ve kaçakçılık faaliyetleri çerçevesinde kurgulanmıştır. Böylece sınırın kaçak geçişler yönünden güvenli ve güvensiz kesimleri belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma, son yıllarda Türkiye-Suriye arasındaki faaliyetlerinin yoğun olarak görüldüğü örnek bir alanda yapıldığı için büyük önem teşkil etmektedir. Çok kriterli analiz yönteminin kullanıldığı çalışmanın faktör haritaları çeşitli kaynaklardan elde edilen veriler kullanılarak oluşturulmuştur. Çalışmaya ait tematik haritaların üretilmesinde ve faktör haritalarının analizlerinde CBS (Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri) programlarından ArcGIS/ArcMap 10.3 yazılımından istifade edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre sınırın % 63.7 (110698.7 ha) oranında az güvenilir ve % 25.0 (43380.2 ha) oranında ise güvenli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bunun yanında sahanın % 10.5 (18187.2 ha) güvensiz ve % 0.8 (1336.2 ha) çok güvenli olduğu da anlaşılmıştır. Çalışma sonuçları güvenlik risk duyarlılığının karakolların veya sınır kapısının görülmediği, arazi örtüsünden yoksun ve eğim değerlerinin azaldığı akarsuya yakın ova tabanlarında daha çok güvensiz veya az güvenilir bir dağılış göstermekte olduğunu ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bu bağlamda en riskli sahalar, İncirli, Reyhanlı ve Hacıpaşa yerleşim alanlarının çevresidir. Söz konusu arazilerde özellikle doğal engellerin kolayca aşılması her türlü sınır ihlalini kolaylaştırmaktadır. Bu nedenle Hatay-Suriye sınırı boyunca güvenlik riski duyarlılığının güvenli ve çok güvenli bir hale getirilmesi için öncelikle, sınır çevresindeki güvensiz alanlarda gerekli önlemler alınmalıdır. Sonuç olarak bu çalışma farklı türden stratejik öneme sahip alanlarda çeşitli yöntem ve teknikler kullanılarak yeni araştırmaların yapılabileceğini göstermiştir. Özellikle Türkiye'nin bütün kara sınırları boyunca benzer türden detaylı analiz çalışmaları yapılmalıdır. Ayrıca CBS tekniklerinin güvenlik riski duyarlılık analizi çalışmalarında çok verimli olduğu da anlaşılmıştır

Security is a multifaceted concept in today’s world. This concept involves political, economic, legal, sociological, psychological, technological, and geographical factors besides military security. For this reason, security has been interpreted based on the notions of risk and threat in recent studies, and the spiral relationship between these has often been emphasized. Over the last years, statistical and probabilitybased calculations have gained popularity, and risk studies have begun to be used commonly in several areas. This situation has especially paved the way for studies on security risk. This is because security risk is not a phenomenon which is procured or avoided from. In addition, it may not be possible to compensate for the damage it causes. The strategic location of Turkey has made it a target country besides gaining the status of a country of transit more every passing day. That has especially brought along an increase in the number of smuggling cases. While 13,896 operations were made about smuggling crimes in Turkey in 2010, this figure reached up to 17.776 in 2011 and to 22.466 in 2012. As a result of all these operations, 16.4 million litres of fuel oil, 241.000 mobile phones, 99.1 million boxes of cigarette, 1.378 tones of smuggled tea, and 2.438 immigrants were caught. Furthermore, the distribution of smuggling cases across Turkey has changed. In this regard, the province with the highest record of smuggling cases, which is 1771, is Hatay while Tunceli has the least number of records with 3. The other provinces exceeding one hundred are Adana with 1465 cases, Gaziantep with 1080 cases, and Mersin with 1015 cases. The most striking effect of the smuggling cases in Turkey is observed in immigration and terror incidents. Hence, due to the civil unrest experienced in neighboring countries, a sharp increase has been recorded in the number of illegal immigration incidents in Turkey located on the transportation route between source and target countries. Due to the increasing number of terror incidents since the mids of 1990 and the terror organization’s hampering the transportation serving for border trade, the population living in the border provinces and engaged in border trade began to go out of business because of security concerns. For this reason, border security and border security planning have become highly important. In the present study, it is aimed to carry out a security risk analysis on Hatay - Syria border. In this analysis, border violations and smuggling cases were taken into account. Thus, secure and insecure points were determined on the border to prevent illegal entry. Hatay’s position in the top 20 in terms of the number of the cases of smuggling through different ways in 2012 made this study necessary. This study is also very important for being carried out in a location where the neighbourhood relations between Turkey and Syria have become tense, and smuggling cases are intensively observed. The study area is in southern Turkey and covers a 10 km-area in the Hatay side of the Hatay-Syria border. This area was found to be within the second-degree land military forbidden zone defined in the Article 8 of the Law on “Military Forbidden Zones and Security Zones” dated 1981 and numbered 2565. The study area has an area of 1736 km² and is administratively located within the borders of Reyhanlı, Hassa, and Yayladağı districts. In the study area, there are 2 border gates: Cilvegözü (Reyhanlı) and Yayladağı. Furthermore, there are nearly 64 police stations on the border route. In the present study, Turkey’s 1/25.000 scaled topographic map sheets prepared by the Command of Mapping were used as the main materials. Based on these maps, the geomorphology, slope index, slope roughness, and slope position factor maps and the maps showing the distance to rivers and roads were drawn and the spatial data about the mentioned area (e.g. settlement areas, hills) were obtained. Through remote sensing techniques, Cnes/Spot Image satellite image dated 4/15/2014 in the Google Earth (KMZ) format was used in order to draw factor maps showing the distance to the border, the effect of police stations, the border gates, and border effect. Also, both satellite image and the factor map showing land use were created based on the digital land use maps (1/25.000-scaled) prepared by the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock. The factor map showing the population density was drawn through the interpolation of 2012 census data (Address-Based Population Registration System) from the Turkish Statistical Institute. Also, the ArcGIS/ArcMap 10.3 software, which is one of the GIS (Geographic Information Systems) programs, was used for drawing the thematic maps of the study area and the analysis of the factor maps. Carried out through the multi-criteria analysis method integrated with GIS techniques, the present study was designed for the assessment of border violation cases and the security risks in terms of smuggling. During the application of the method, the factors considered to have an effect on the security risk analysis were determined taking into account the features of the study area and the local data collected through field works. Afterwards, the related factors were separated into value classes through simple additive weighting and accordingly impact and weight values were assigned. Based on these values, the following order was determined: “0: No effect, 1: Absolutely secure, 2: Secure, 3: Slightly secure 4: Insecure”. After the values were assigned, analysis was made. In this regard, factor maps with a resolution of 10x10 m were created in grid format based on the impact values of all parameters in the first place. These maps were merged using the Raster Calculator, which is one of Spatial Analyst tools, based on the weight values, and the areal and spatial distribution of security risk sensitivity classes was obtained. In the last stage, the obtained data were checked through field works and personal interviews, and then the paper was written. At the end of the security risk analysis of Hatay frontier, which is the longest line of the Turkey-Syria border, it was found out that 63.7 % (110698.7 ha) of the border is slightly secure while 25.0 % (43380.2 ha) is secure. Additionally, it was understood that 10.5 % of the area is insecure while 0.8 % (1336.2 ha) is absolutely secure. The study results demonstrated that the plain bases close to the rivers where there is not a police station or border gate; no land cover is seen; and slope values tend to fall are very insecure or slightly secure. In this regard, the areas with the highest risk are the surroundings of settlements in İncirli, Reyhanlı, and Hacıpaşa. That natural obstacles can easily be overcome in these areas facilitates any type of border violation. For this reason, necessary measures should be taken in the insecure areas around the border so that the Hatay-Syria border can be secure or absolutely secure against security risks. Furthermore, the number of military security officers should be increased in the mentioned areas. The unobservable areas in the border zone should be determined and monitored continuously through surveillance cameras. Border security information systems should be built. Detailed planning studies should be carried out considering the geographical conditions in the zones where border security violations might be seen. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that new studies may be carried out in areas having a different strategic importance through various methods and techniques. Similar in-depth analyses should be carried out along all land borders of Turkey. Moreover, GIS techniques proved to be very efficient in security risk sensitivity analyses.