“FIX IT OR NIX IT?” AN ANALYSIS OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S POLICY ON THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL (JCPOA)

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is the culmination of efforts of the international community to address the proliferation concerns on Iran’s nuclear program since 2003. The IAEA safeguards, key to prevent proliferation, were enhanced to ensure transparent nuclear programs. During the Iran nuclear talks, Iran was asked to halt its uranium enrichment activities, a critical technology to obtain weapon grade material. The negative response was met with international sanctions. It was not until the Obama administration in the United States and Rouhani Presidency in Iran that the deadlock could be opened. The goal has been to keep a non-nuclear-weapon state within the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. The P5+1 talks with Iran could result in a deal after taking the concerns and interests of Iran as a variable and by using technical measures to address a political problem. The main lesson of the JCPOA was that the strength of the regime and its norm was essential. The Trump administration, however, during the election campaign and the Presidency, wanted a revision or withdrawal from the deal, arguing that it is not enough to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon that Tehran has violated it with its ballistic missile program, and it continued sponsoring terrorism with the funds received. President Trump has been unwilling to certify the deal, and withdrew from it, causing a rift with others endorsing the JCPOA. The attitude in Washington is counterproductive for ensuring Iran’s compliance and transparency. This article will analyze Trump administration’s policy on the Iran nuclear deal by deconstructing the discourses of officials to find the main concerns and fears that made the deal as “the worst ever” and shifted from one which ended the nuclear talks successfully and kept Iran non-nuclear and within the regime. It will also show the missing points of the Trump foreign policy in their assessment of the JCPOA, what is prioritized, and what is constructed as a threat to the United States. It will end with recommendations to the international community to preserve the deal.

“DÜZELT YA DA REDDET?” TRUMP YÖNETİMİNİN İRAN NÜKLEER ANLAŞMASI (JCPOA) İLE İLGİLİ SİYASETİNİN BİR ANALİZİ

Ortak Kapsamlı Hareket Planı (JCPOA) uluslararası topluluğun 2003’ten bu yana İran’ın nükleer programı ile ilgili kaygıların bertaraf edilmesine yönelik verdiği çabaların sonucunun alındığı bir anlaşmadır. Nükleer programların şeffaflıkla yürütülmesi için, nükleer silahlanmanın önlenmesinde kilit önem taşıyan Uluslararası Atom Enerjisi Ajansı’nın güvence denetimlerinin kapsamı genişletilmiştir. İran ile nükleer programı üzerine yapılan görüşmeler sırasında, silah seviyesine uygun nükleer madde üretebilecek kritik bir teknoloji olan uranyum zenginleştirme faaliyetlerini durdurması istenmiştir. İran’ın buna verdiği olumsuz yanıtın karşılığı yaptırımlar olmuştur. ABD’de Obama, İran’da da Ruhani yönetime gelinceye kadar görüşmelerdeki tıkanıklık aşılamamıştır. Bu görüşmelerin amacı, İran’ın nükleer silaha sahip olmayan devlet statüsünü koruyabilmekti. İran ve P5+1 görüşmeleri, İran’ın kaygı ve çıkarlarını da değişken olarak aldıktan sonra ve siyasi bir soruna teknik alanda çözümler getirerek bir sonuca varabilmiştir. Nükleer anlaşmanın en önemli sonucu uluslararası nükleer silahların yayılmasının önlenmesi rejiminin ve normunun sağlamlığının esas teşkil ettiğidir. Trump yönetimi ise, hem seçim sürecinde hem de başkanlığı döneminde anlaşmanın değiştirilmesini ya da anlaşmadan çekilmeyi istemiştir. Buna sebep olarak da Tahran’ın anlaşmayı, balistik füze programı, edindiği fonları teröre destek vermek için kullanarak bozduğunu öne sürmüştür. Başkan Trump, anlaşmanın onaylanmasında gönülsüz olmuş ve sonunda da anlaşmadan çekilmiştir. Bu da, anlaşmayı imzalayan diğer devletlerle ayrılığa neden olmaktadır. Washington’daki tavır İran’ın anlaşmayla uyumlu davranması ve programın şeffaflıkla yürütülmesi açılarından ters etki yaratmaktadır. Bu makale Trump yönetiminin İran nükleer anlaşması konusundaki siyasetini yetkililerin söylemleri üzerinden analiz edecektir. Burada amaç, ABD’deki yönetimin ana kaygı ve korkularını tespit ederek, nükleer anlaşmanın nasıl nükleer müzakereleri başarı ile sonlandıran ve İran’ın nükleer silah sahibi olmasını engelleyen bir anlaşma olmaktan çıkarak “olabilecek en kötü anlaşma” haline geldiğini görmektir. Aynı zamanda Trump’ın anlaşmayı değerlendirmesi ile oluşan dış politikasındaki eksik kalan noktaları, neyin öne çıkarıldığını ve ABD’ye karşı neyin “tehdit” olarak inşa edildiğini ortaya koyacaktır. Sonuç olarak da anlaşmayı muhafaza etmek için uluslararası topluluğa önerilerde bulunacaktır.

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