DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES

It is believed that wealth of countries also increases as the level of democratization increases, vice versa. Effects of democracy on the economic structure have been discussed for a long time. In economic growth literature, it can be seen that the effect of democracy has been frequently examined within the scope of economic growth. But, it can be seen that there is no consensus in studies on relationship between democracy and economic growth. In the present study, the effect of democracy on the economic growth was examined via panel data method by using 1972-2016 annually data of 8 emerging market economies. During the analyses, the real GDP represented the economic growth and Freedom House freedom index represented the level of democracy. In this study, the cross sectional dependency was tested using CDLM 1 and CDLM adj , stationarity of series by using CADF unit root test, and long-term relationships by using Westerlund and Edgerton (2007) cointegration test and long-term relationship was found between the series. The coefficients were estimated using Panel AMG method. The findings indicated that the increase in level of democracy affected the economic growth positively in some countries and negatively in some other countries. Moreover, the causality between the variables was examined by using the test of Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011). Bidirectional causality was observed in most of panel. According to the results, it was found that the increase in democratization level in Brazil, Chile, India, and Turkey positively affected the economic growth. But, in Argentina, China, Indonesia, and South Africa, the increase in democratization level has negative effects on the economic growth. In emerging countries such as Turkey, the sustainable economic growth depends on the presence of strong economic institutions.

DEMOKRASI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: YÜKSELEN PİYASA EKONOMİLERİNDEN KANIT

Demokratikleşme derecesi arttıkça ülkelerin zenginliğinin arttığı ya da zenginleştikçe ülkelerin demokratikleştiği düşünülmektedir. Demokrasinin ekonomik yapı üzerine olan etkisi uzun zamandır tartışılagelen bir konudur. Ekonomik büyüme literatürüne bakıldığında, ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicileri kapsamında sıklıkla demokrasinin etkisinin incelendiği görülmektedir. Ancak demokrasi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi hakkında yapılan çalışmalarda bir görüş birliği olmadığı ifade edilebilir. Çalışmada, demokrasinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi seçilmiş 8 yükselen piyasa ekonomisinde 1972-2016 dönemi verileri kullanılarak panel veri tekniğiyle araştırılmıştır. Analizlerde ekonomik büyümeyi temsilen reel GSYİH, demokrasi düzeyini temsilen Freedom House özgürlük endeksi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada yatay kesit bağımlılığı CDLM 1 ve CDLM adj , serilerin durağanlığı CADF birim kök testiyle, uzun dönemli ilişkiler Westerlund ve Edgerton (2007) eşbütünleşme testiyle incelenmiş ve seriler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki belirlenmiştir. Katsayılar Panel AMG yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular bazı ülkelerde demokrasi düzeyindeki artışın ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu bazılarında ise olumsuz etkilediğini göstermiştir. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) testiyle incelenmiştir. Panelin geneli için çift yönlü nedensellik gözlemlenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, Brezilya, Şili, Hindistan ve Türkiye’de demokrasi düzeyindeki artışın ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilediği görülmüştür. Ancak Arjantin, Çin, Endonezya ve Güney Afrika’da ise demokrasi düzeyindeki artışın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumsuz etkilere sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir. Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme sağlam ekonomik kurumların varlığına bağlı olarak ortaya çıkacaktır.

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