Yeşilırmak Havzasında İklim Değişim Senaryoları Altında Gelecekteki Sediment Verimi ve Sediment Tutma Kapasitesinin InVEST Model ile Değerlendirilmesi

İklim değişikliğinin toprak erozyonu da dâhil olmak üzere daha şiddetli çevresel problemlere yol açması beklenmektedir. Bu araştırmada Yeşilırmak Havzasın da toprak erozyonu yoluyla meydana gelen sediment verimi ve sediment tutma kapasitesi üzerine iklim değişikliğinin etkilerinin InVEST sediment iletim modeli ile incelenmesine yöneliktir. Araştırmada İklim değişikliğinin toprak erozyonu üzerine etkilerinin incelenmesi için GFDL-CM3 (Jeofiziksel Akışkanlar Dinamiği Laboratuvarı İklim Modeli Sürüm III) genel dolaşım modelinin RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 senaryoları kullanılmıştır. 2070’ li yıllara kadar Yeşilırmak Havzasında referans döneme göre sediment veriminde ve sediment tutunma oranlarında sırasıyla %9,48 ve %12,47 düzeyine varan azalışlar öngörülmüştür. Toprak erozyonu oranlarındaki azalmanın temel sebebi yağış miktarlarındaki düşüşlerden kaynaklanan yağış erozovitesindeki azalmadan kaynaklanmaktadır ve bu azalmanın etkisi sulak alan sistemlerine ve tarım arazilerine olumlu şekilde yansıması öngörülmüştür. Ayrıca, bu araştırma gelecekteki iklim değişikliğinin toprak erozyonuna olası etkilerinin mekânsal ve zamansal olarak tahmin edilmesinde InVEST model yaklaşımının avantajlarına işaret etmektedir.

Evaluation of Future Sediment Yield and Sediment Retention Capacity with InVEST Model under Climate Change Scenarios in Yeşilırmak Basin

Climate change is expected to cause more severe environmental problems, including soil erosion. This study aims to examine the effects of climate change on the sediment yield and sediment retention capacity through soil erosion in the Yeşilırmak Basin with the InVEST sediment delivery ratio model. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of the GFDL-CM3 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model Version III) general circulation model were used to examine the effects of climate change on soil erosion. Decreases in the sediment yield and sediment retention rates of Yeşilırmak Basin were projected up to 9.48% and 12.47% in 2070, respectively. The main reason for the decrease in soil erosion rates is the decrease in rainfall erosivity resulting from the decrease in precipitation amounts, and the effect of this decrease is predicted to have a positive impact on wetland systems and agricultural lands. In addition, this research points to the advantages of the InVEST model approach in spatial and temporal estimation of the possible effects of future climate change on soil erosion.

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