Türkiye'de 1981-2000 döneminde sanayi kesiminde enerji tüketiminin ayrıştırılması

Ayrıştırma analizi, enerji tüketimindeki değişimin nedenlerini ortaya koymak açısından enerji ile ilgili çalışmalar arasında önemli bir yer işgal etmektedir. Enerji tüketimindeki toplam değişimin ayrıştırılması, dünya genelinde, ulusal düzeyde ya da verilerin elde edilebilirliği oranında sektörel düzeyde yapılmaktadır. Ayrıştırma modelleri temel olarak indeks sayılara dayanır. Enerji tüketimindeki değişme genel olarak, ekonomik faaliyetlerin büyüklüğünden (üretim etkisi), sektörel teknoloji seviyesinden (yoğunluk etkisi) ve ekonomik yapıdan (yapısal etki) etkilenmektedir. Bu çalışma, 1981-2000 arasında Türkiye'de sanayi sektöründe tüketilen enerjideki değişimin nedenlerini tanımlamak için ayrıştırma analizini kullanmıştır. Değişimin kaynaklarını ayrıştırma, üretim etkisi, yapısal etki ve yoğunluk etkisi biçiminde yapılmıştır. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye'de yapısal değişimin bir dereceye kadar avantajlara sahip olduğunu fakat yoğunluk etkisi yoluyla enerji tasarrufunun sağlanabildiğini göstermektedir. Böylece, enerji politikası sadece enerji arzının artırılmasına odaklanmama-lı ve fakat enerji tasarrufu sağlayan teknolojilerin kullanılması konusunda da yol gösterici olmalıdır.

Decomposition of industrial energy consumption in Turkey, 1981-2000

Decomposition analysis has been popular in explaining the change in energy consumption in energy literature. Decomposition is carried out at international, national and sectoral levels depending on the availability of data. The decomposition models are essentially the application of index numbers. It is generally regarded that the change in energy consumption are mainly influenced by the scale of economic activities (the activity effect), sectoral technological level (the intensity effect), and the economic structure (the structure effect). This study applies decomposition analysis to identify the sources of changes in energy consumption in industrial sector in Turkey between 1981 and 2000. We decompose the sources of change into output effect, structure effect and intensity effect. Our findings imply that Turkey took advantage of structural change to some certain extent, but there is still room for energy saving through intensity effect. Therefore, energy policy should not only focus on increasing the supply of energy, but also reducing energy intensity through more energy saving technologies. JEL Classification: Q40, Q49

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