Türkiye’de Küreselleşme ve Hava Taşımacılığı Arasındaki İlişki: Bir Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 1970-2018 dönemi için küreselleşme ve hava taşımacılığı arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesidir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, KOF Küreselleşme Endeksi küreselleşme değişkeni olarak, taşınan hava yolcu sayısı da hava taşımacılığı değişkeni olarak analizde kullanılmaktadır. İlk olarak, değişkenlerin doğrusallık özellikleri Harvey vd. (2008) ve Harvey ve Leybourne (2007) testleri ile sınanmaktadır. İkinci olarak, birim kök boş hipotezinin sınanmasında Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Kapetanios vd. (2003), Sollis (2009) ve Kruse (2011) testleri kullanılmaktadır. Son olarak, eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin testinde eşik değer otoregresif modellere dayanan Kapetanios vd. (2006), KSS (2006) olarak da bilinmekte, eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmaktadır. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’de ekonomik, sosyal ve politik boyutları içeren küreselleşme ile hava taşımacılığı arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğu yönündedir. Diğer bir ifade ile sonuçlar, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemde bir ilişki olduğunu desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

KOF Küreselleşme Endeksi, Küreselleşme, Hava Taşımacılığı, Eşbütünleşme Analizi

The Relationship between Globalization and Air Transport in Turkey: A Cointegration Analysis

The purpose of the study is to examine the relationship between globalization and air transport in Turkey for the period between 1970 and 2018. The KOF Globalization Index as a globalization variable and the number of air passengers carried as an air transport variable are used in the analysis for this purpose. Firstly, Harvey et al. (2008) and Harvey and Leybourne (2007) tests are applied to test the linearity of the variables. Secondly, the unit root hypothesis is tested by applying the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Kapetanios et al. (2003), Sollis (2009), and Kruse (2011). Finally, Kapetanios et al. (2006) cointegration test created based upon threshold autoregressive models, also known as KSS (2006), is run to test the cointegration relation. Results report that there is a cointegration relation between globalization, which covers the economic, social, and political dimension, and air transport in Turkey. In other words, results support that there is a long run relationship between the variables

Keywords:

KOF Globalization Index, Globalization, Air Transport, Cointegration Analysis,

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