21. Yüzyılda Silahlara Veda: Moro İslami Kurtuluş Cephesi Örneği

Bu çalışma, Moro İslami Kurtuluş Cephesi (MILF)’nin 21. Yüzyıldaki siyasa değişimini incelemiş ve ayrılıkçı hareketlerin amaçlarındaki ve/veya amaçlarına ulaşmak için tercih ettikleri araçlarındaki değişimlere dair açıklayıcı bir tipoloji sunmuştur. MILF’nin 21. Yüzyılda silah bırakarak bağımsızlık amacından vazgeçmesi neticesinde yaşanan siyasa değişimini, uluslararası üçüncü tarafların devreye girmesi, tarafların liderlerinin barış konusundaki kararlılığı ve sahadaki askeri dengeye referansla analiz eden çalışmalara rastlamak mümkündür. Tüm bu analizler bu siyasa değişimini anlamak için önemli olsa da bu çalışma bu değişimin, MILF liderliğinin 21. Yüzyıldaki uluslararası konjonktür ve büyük güç siyasetine dair eskisine nazaran değişen algılamalarının bir sonucu olarak ortaya çıktığını ileri sürmektedir. Ayrıca çalışma kapsamında, C. F. Hermann’ın devletlerin dış politikalarındaki değişime dair tipolojisi, birkaç ekleme ve çıkarmayla birlikte ayrılıkçı hareketlerdeki siyasa değişimlerine uyarlanmış ve böylece MILF’nin 21. Yüzyıldaki siyasa değişimi analiz edilmiştir. Bu tipolojiye göre 21. Yüzyılda bağımsızlık hedefinden vazgeçip özerkliği kabul eden MILF’nin siyasasında bir “problem/amaç değişimi” yaşanmıştır. Bu “problem/amaç değişiminin” kaynağı ise, “dış şok” unsurlarının etkisi altında, “lider güdümlü değişim” olarak kategorize edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Filipinler, Ayrılıkçı Hareketler, Ayrılıkçılık, Mindanao, MILF

A Farewell to Arms in the 21st Century: The Case of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front

This study examined the policy change of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) during the 21st century and offered an explanatory typology for changes in the secessionist movements’ aims and/or means through which they pursue their aims. It is possible to find studies that analyze the disarmament of the MILF and renouncing its goal for independence as a policy change in the 21st Century with reference to the involvement of international third parties, the determination of the leaders of the parties for peace, and the military balance in the field. Although all these perspectives are very helpful to understand MILF’s policy change, this study argues that the above-mentioned change has occurred as a result of the change in MILF leadership’s perceptions of the international conjuncture and great power politics in the 21st century. In addition, C. F. Hermann’s typology of changes regarding states’ foreign policies adapted to secessionist movements with a few additions and exclusions to analyze MILF’s policy changes during the 21st Century. Thus, according to this typology, during the 21st century, a “problem/goal change” has occurred in the MILF policy, which has renounced the goal for independence, settling for autonomy. The source of this “problem/goal change” is categorized as a “leader-driven change” under the influence of an “external shock.”

Keywords:

Philippines, Secessionist Movements, Separatism, Mindanao, MILF,

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