TURİZM TALEP TAHMİNİ: İSPANYOL TURİSTLERİN KAPADOKYA’YA SEYAHATİNİ İNCELEYEN KARŞILAŞTIRMALI BİR MODEL ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmanın iki amacı vardır. İlki, turizm talebini en iyi tahmin eden modelleri tanımlamaktır. İkincisi, tespit edilen uygun modeller yardımıyla Kapadokya’ya gelen İspanyol turistlere ilişkin talebi tahmin etmektir. Uluslararası turizm talebi arttıkça, ülkelerin ekonomisi için turizm sektörünün önemi ve büyüklüğü de artmaktadır. Ülkelerin turizm talebini dikkate almaları için hazırlıklı olmaları gerekmekte ve bu nedenle ülkeler gelecekteki turizm talebi hakkında bilgi sahibi olmak istemektedir. Ancak, gerçek talebi tespit etmek her zaman mümkün değildir ve bu gibi durumlarda insanlar sadece tahmin yapabilmektedir. Bu makale uluslararası turizm talep tahmini üzerine, özellikle de Türkiye’nin Kapadokya bölgesindeki İspanyol turist ziyaretleri üzerine odaklanmaktadır. Bu amaca uygun olarak, sekiz tahmin modeli kullanılmıştır. Her model için analiz sonuçları elde edilmiş ve tahmin doğruluğu incelenmiştir. Yapay sinir ağları ve çok değişkenli regresyon modelinin çalışmada kullanılan diğer modellere göre daha iyi sonuçlar verdiği görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak, çalışmanın kısıtları ile gelecekte gerçekleştirilecek araştırmalar için birtakım önerilere yer verilmiştir.

FORECASTING TOURISM DEMAND: A COMPARATIVE MODEL ANALYSIS FOCUSING ON SPANISH TOURIST’S TRAVEL TO CAPPADOCIA

This study has two purposes. Firstly, it aims to identify models that best estimate tourism demand. Secondly, it also aimsto estimate the demand of Spanish tourists who visit Cappadocia, by using the identified proper models. As internationaltourism demand continually grows, the importance and magnitude of the tourism sector for the economies of the countriesincrease. In order to take into account the tourism demand, countries need to be prepared and therefore they want to knowabout the future demand. However, it is not always possible to know the actual demand and one can only make forecasts insuch cases. This paper deals with forecasting international tourism demand, specifically focusing on the Spanish tourist visitsin Cappadocia region of Turkey. In accordance with this aim, eight forecasting models are used. The results of the analysesfor each model are obtained and the forecasting accuracy examined. It is seen that the Artificial Neural Networks and theMultiple Regression Model outperforms the other models. Finally, limitations of the study and future resarch directions arediscussed.

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