SURİYE’NİN ATEŞ FIRTINASI: NEREDEN, NEREYE?

Mevcut Suriye krizi ve savaşına ilişkin analizlerin büyük bir kısmı, siyasi çözümler, istikrarsızlığın yapısal kaynakları, Irak’tan taşma etkisi ve dış aktörlerin sorumluluğunu vurgulamaktadır. Bu yöndeki analizler Suriye iç politikasını ve yerel liderlik aktörlerini değersizleştirmektedir ki bu Suriye rejimi için kullanışlı bir değersizleştirmedir. Bu makale, nihai bir askeri sonucu siyasi kozmetiği içerecek şekilde dikkate almaktadır. Bu makale mezhepsel tutuşma da dahil olmak üzere Suriye’deki gelişmelerin yönetici hizip aktörleri ile yakından alakalı olduğunu ve Irak’ın aksine Suriye’nin 2011’den itibaren krizin ana arenası olduğunu savunmaktadır. Makale ayrıca Suriye çerçevesinde ‘vekaleten savaş’ ve nihai hedefi dikte edemeseler de dış güçlerin Suriye’deki gidişat üzerindeki etkilerini sorgulamaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Suriye, yapı ve aktör, mezhepçilik, vekaleten savaş, cihatçılık, rejim değişikliği

SYRIA’S FIRESTORM: WHERE FROM? WHERE TO?

Much analysis of the present Syrian crisis and war emphasizes political solutions, structural sources of instability, spill over from Iraq, and the responsibility of external actors. Such analysis devalues both Syrian domestic affairs and local leadership agency, devaluation convenient to the Syrian regime. This article considers an eventual military outcome, involving political cosmetics. It suggests that developments in Syria, including sectarian inflammation, have had a lot to do with ruling clique agency, and that Syria -not Iraq- has been the core crisis arena since 2011. The article also questions the idea of “proxy war” in the Syrian case; outside powers influence the trajectory in Syria, but they may not dictate the destination

Keywords:

Syria, structure and agency, Sectarianism, proxy war, Jihadism, regime change,

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