ARAP BAHARI’NIN İRAN’IN ORTADOĞU POLİTİKASINA ETKİLERİ

Bu makale, Arap Baharı’nın İran’ın Ortadoğu politikası üzerindeki etkilerini incelemeyi amaçlamıştır. Arap Baharı’nın etkilerinin sonradan ortaya çıkan gelişmelere bağlı olarak zamanla değişmesi nedeniyle İran’ın bu dönemde tutarlı bir bölge politikası geliştiremediği iddia edilmektedir. Arap isyanlarının İran’ın önünde açacağı düşünülen fırsatlar gerçekleşmemiş, üstelik İran’ın bölgesel siyaseti için yeni tehditler ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu nedenle, Arap isyanlarının başlangıcında oldukça iyimser olan İranlı liderler zamanla daha ihtiyatlı bir yaklaşım geliştirmiş ve bölgesel gelişmeleri endişeyle izlemiştir. Yeni Cumhurbaşkanı Hasan Ruhani, dış politikada itidal ve uluslararası aktörler ile yapıcı etkileşimi öne çıkaran bir yaklaşımla Arap Baharı’nın İran’ın bölge siyaseti üzerindeki menfi tesirlerini etkisizleştirmeye çalışmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Arap Baharı, Orta Doğu, İran, Ruhani, Şii Ekseni

IMPLICATIONS OF THE ARAB SPRING FOR IRAN’S POLICY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE EAST

This article attempts to review effects of the Arab Spring on Iran’s policy toward the Middle East. It argues that Iran could not have developed a consistent policy towards the region, because implications of the Arab Spring have varied in time in accordance with subsequent, emerging developments. The initial optimism of the Iranian leadership with regard to the Arab upheavals, gave way to prudent caution and rising anxiety as the expected opportunities brought by upheavals were overwhelmed by new challenges to Iran’s regional strategy. With a new approach to foreign policy that highlighted moderation and constructive interaction with international actors, new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has striven to neutralize the Arab Spring’s adverse effects on the regional policy of Iran

Keywords:

Arab Spring, Middle East, Iran, Rouhani, Shiite Axis,

PDF

___

Ahmadi, Hamid, “Iran and the Arab Spring: Why Haven’t Iranians Followed the Arabs in Waging Revolution,” Asian Politics & Policy, Vol.5, No.3, 2013.
Alfoneh, Ali, “Mixed Response in Iran: Middle Eastern Upheavals,” Middle East Quarterly, Vol.18, No.3, Summer 2011.
Arikan, Pinar, “Change in Foreign Policy of Iran under Rouhani Government and its Reflections in Domestic Politics,” ORSAM Review of Regional Affairs, No.1 (March 2014).
Atai, Farhad, “Itan within the Political Dynamics of the Middle East,” Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, Vol.2, No.4, Winter 2012.
Ayoob, Mohammad, “The Arab Spring: Its Geostrategic Significance,” Middle East Policy, Vol. 19, No.3, Fall 2012.
Badran, Tony, “The Syria-Iran Alliance,” In Focus Quarterly, vol.3, no.1 (Spring 2009), (accessed on July 5, 2014).
Barzegar, Kayhan, “Arab Uprising and the Changing Geopolitics in the Middle East,” Discourse: An Iranian Quarterly, Vol.10, No 1-2, Winter-Spring 2012.
Barzegar, Kayhan, “The Arab Revolutions and Iran’s Regional Policy,” Discourse: An Iranian Quarterly, Vol.10, No 3-4, Summer-Fall 2012.
Chubin, Shahram, “Iran and the Arab Spring: Ascendancy Frustrated”, Gulf Research Center (GRC) Paper, September 2012.
Furtig, Henner, “Iran and the Arab Spring: Between Expectations and Disillusion,” German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Working Papers, No.241, No- vember 2013.
Gause III, F. Gregory, “Saudi Arabia: Ira, Iran, the Regional Power Balance, and the Sectarian Question,” Strategic Insights, Vol. 6, No.2, March 2007.
Haji-Yousefi, Amir Mohammad, “Iran and the 2011 Arab Revolutions: Perceptions and Actions,” Discourse – An Iranian Quarterly, Vol.10, No 1-2, Win- ter-Spring 2012.
Henderson, Simon, “GCC Summit will Gauge Regional Confidence in U.S. Policy,” WINEP Policy Watch, No. 2180, December 9, 2013.
Jamshidi, Mohammad Hossein, “Unity, key to success of Islamic Awakening move- ment,” Islamic Awakening, No.3, June 2012.
Jones, Peter, “Hopes and Disappointment: Iran and the Arab Spring,” Survival, Vol 55, No.4, August-September 2013.
Kaya, Dalia D., Frederic Wehrey and M. Scott Doran, “Arab Spring, Persian Winter: Will Iran Emerge the Winner from the Arab Revolt”, Foreign Affairs, July/ August 2011.
Keshavarz, Abbas, “Public demands in the Middle East are more religious than polit- ical,” Islamic Awakening, No.3, June 2012.
Khallaji, Mehdi, “Iran’s Policy Confusion about Bahrain,” WINEP Policy Watch, No. 1823, June 27, 2011.
Kiani, Mohammad Reza, “Iran’s Foreign Policy Under Rouhani,” Institute for Mid- dle East Strategic Studies, September 7, 2013, available at
http://en.cmess.ir/default.aspx?tabid=98&ArticleId=567 (accessed on May 10, 2014).
Maloney, Suzanne, “Iran: The Bogeyman”, in The Arab Awakening, (Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2011).
Mohseni, Payam, “The Islamic Awakening: Iran’s Grand Narrative of Arab Upris- ings,” Middle East Brief (Brandeis University, Crown Center for Middle East Studies), No.71, April 2013.
Monshipouri, Mahmood and Manochehr Dorraj, “Iran’s Foreign Policy: A Shifting Strategic Landscape,” Middle East Policy, Vol. 20, No.4, Winter 2013.
Parchami, Ali, “The ‘Arab Spring’: the View from Tehran,” Contemporary Politics, Vol.8, No.1, March 2012.
Parsi, Trita and Reza Marashi, “Arab Spring Seen from Tehran: The Geopolitical Contest fort the Region’s Hearts and Minds”, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, No. 2, Summer 2011.
Pletka, Daniel and Frederick W. Kagan, “America vs. Iran: The Competition for the Future of Middle East,” AEI, January 2014.
Poursaid, Farzad, “A Comparative Study on Iran’s Islamic Revolution and Egypt’s Revolution,” Discourse – An Iranian Quarterly, Vol.10, No 1-2, Win- ter-Spring 2012.
Rafati, Naysan, “After the Arab Spring: Power Shift in the Middle East?: Iran and the Arab Spring,” IDEAS reports - special reports, Kitchen, Nicholas (ed.) SR011. LSE IDEAS, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, May 2012.
Ryan, Curtis, “The New Arab Cold War and Struggle for Syria,” Middle East Report, No. 242, Spring 2012.
Sinkaya, Bayram, “Arab Baharı Sürecinde İran’ın Suriye Politikası,” SETA Analiz, No.53, April 2012.
Sinkaya, Bayram, “İran-Suriye İlişkileri ve Suriye’de Halk İsyanı” (Iran-Syria Relati- ons and Popular Unrest in Syria), Ortadoğu Analiz, Vol.3, No.33, Septem- ber 2011.
Telhami, Shibley, “Arab Perspectives on Iran’s Role in a Changing Middle East”, Wil- son Center, The Changing Security Architectu re in the Middle East, Issue 2, 2013.
Torabi, Ghasem, “Arab Revolutions and Iran’s Security,” Discourse – An Iranian Quarterly, Vol.10, No 1-2, Winter-Spring 2012.
Vakil, Sanam, “Iran: Balancing East against West,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol.29, No.4 2006.
Valbjİrn, Morten & André Bank, “The New Arab Cold War: Rediscovering the Arab Dimension of Middle East Regional Politics,” Review of International Stud- ies, Vol.38, No.1, 2012.
Valbjİrn, Morten and André Bank, “Signs of a New Arab Cold War: The 2006 Leba- non War and the Sunni-Shi‘i Divide,” Middle East Report, No. 242, Spring 2007.
Yehiav, Ayellet, “The Anti-Iranian Front: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan,” Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 11, No.1, March 2007.
Zweiri, Mahjoub, “Revolutionary Iran and Arab Revolts: Observations on Iranian Foreign Policy and its Approaches,” Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies, Doha, September 2012.