ÖNGÖRÜLEMEYEN GÜÇ SİMSARI: İRAN’IN NÜKLEER KAPASİTE GELİŞTİRMESİNDE RUSYA’NIN ROLÜ

Yeni milenyum uluslararası ilişkilerinin en önemli gerilimlerinden biri şüphesiz ki İran ile Batılı devletler arasında uzun bir süredir süre gelen gerilimdir. Bu gerilimin en temel sebebi İran’ın, Rusya yardımıyla geliştirmeye başladığı nükleer kabiliyetidir. Batı da Rusya da, İran’ın bu kabiliyetini askeri nitelikli bir hale dönüştürmesini istememekte ve bundan ciddi bir endişe duymaktadırlar. İran’ın nükleer çabalarını bu düzeyde bir uluslararası soruna dönüştüren temel sebep de bu endişedir. Her ne kadar İran bunun aksini defalarca ifade etse de, özellikle Batı, bir gün gelip İran’ın askeri nitelikli nükleer bir güce kavuşup kavuşamayacağından emin olamamaktadır. İran’ın nükleer enerji teknolojisini, diğer pek çok edinimlerine ek olarak, Rusya’dan alıyor olması da Rusya’yı bu düzlemde en belirleyici arabulucu konumuna getirmektedir. Bu çalışma, Rus diplomasisini İran’ın nükleer kabiliyet elde etmesi çerçevesinde ve özellikle de arabuluculuk kavramı bağlamında değerlendirmektedir. Çalışma 2002-2014 yılları arasındaki gelişmeleri ele almaktadır. Bu değerlendirme aracılığı ile çalışma, uluslararası uyuşmazlıklarda bir çözüm yöntemi olarak kullanılan arabuluculuğun esasında tam anlamıyla iyi niyetli bir diplomatik yaklaşım olmadığını, Rusya gibi, büyük güçler tarafından söz konusu uyuşmazlığı çözmek yerine tarafları etkileyerek sorunu tahakküm etmek ve bu şekilde kendisine özel bir mevki edinmek için kullanılan bir araç olduğunu iddia etmektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Rusya, İran, arabuluculuk, nükleer güç

UNPREDICTABLE POWER BROKER: RUSSIA’S ROLE IN IRAN’S NUCLEAR CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT

One of the major strains of the new millennium international politics has been happening between Iran and the West. Iran’s efforts to build up its nuclear capability with Russia’s help have been keeping the West on its toes. Neither the West nor Russia would really want, and therefore always concerned about, Iran to have a nuclear competence on a military grade. Even though Iran declares the opposite, the West is never sure about the possibility that Iran will achieve this grade one day. Since Iran has been receiving nuclear technology, together with many other commodities, from Russia, Moscow becomes almost a perfect candidate to be a mediator in this dispute. This study investigates Russian diplomacy on Iranian nuclear build up and its problematic consequences within the framework mediation as a strategy to ease disputes. The time frame covers the developments from 2002 to 2014. Via this investigation this research argues that mediation is not as suave as it seems but more of a means for a Great Power, like Russia, to be utilized to influence or almost dominate an international dispute, via carving out a special position and acting as an “unpredictable power broker”, rather than solving it

Keywords:

Russia, Iran, mediation, nuclear power,

PDF

___

“Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran” , IAEA Board of Governors, 8 November 2011, https://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2011/gov2011-65.pdf Accessed on 24 August 2014.
“Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008) and 1835 (2008) in the Islamic Republic of Iran”, IAEA Board of the Governor, 27 November 2009
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2009/gov2009-82.pdf Accessed on 24 August 2014.
“Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007) and 1803 (2008) in the Islamic Republic of Iran”, IAEA Board of the Governor, 15 September 2008
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2008/gov2008-38.pdf Accessed on 24 August 2014.
“İran’la Nükleer Müzakereler 7 ay Uzatıldı”. Al Jazeera Türk, 25 November 2014, http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/haber/iranla-nukleer-muzakereler-7-ay-uzatildi Accessed on 27 November 2014.
“Mediation: Another Method for Resolving Disputes”. Alabama State Bar, January 2007, http://www.alabamaadr.org/web/publicinfo/documents/ADRC_ Mediation_Brochure_English_1201.pdf Accessed on 14 August 2014.
“Putin Plays powerbroker in Mideast”, Deutsche Welle, 22 November 2013, http:// www.dw.de/putin-plays-powerbroker-in-mideast/a-17242484 Accessed on 17 October 2014.
“Russia rules out new Iran sanctions over nuclear report”, BBC News Middle East, 9 November 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middleeast-15659311 Accessed on 24 August 2014.
“Russia rules out new sanctions against Iran”, Al Arabiya News, 09 November 2011, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/11/09/176253.html Accessed on 24 August 2014.
“Timeline of Iran’s Nuclear Programme” , Aljazeera News Middle East, 24 November 2013, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/featur es/2012/04/201241410645752218.html Accessed on 22 August 2014.
“Timeline on Iran’s Nuclear Program”, The New York Times, http://www.nytimes. com/interactive/2013/03/20/world/middleeast/Iran-nuclear timeline. html?_r=0#/#time243_10489 Accessed on 4 November 2014.
“UN Security Council Resolution 1929, Iran”, Council on Foreign Relations, 9 June 2010, http://www.cfr.org/iran/un-security-council-resolution-1929-iran/ p22433 Accessed on 26 August 2014.
Acer, Yücel, “İran ile Nükleer Antlaşma: Hepimiz Şimdi Daha mı Güvendeyiz”, Ankara Strateji Enstitüsü, 16 December 2013, http://www.ankarastrateji. org/yazar/prof-dr-yucel-acer/iran-ile-nukleer-antlasma-hepimiz-simdi-daha-mi-guvendeyiz/ Accessed on 6 September 2014.
Asker, Cemile, “Tarihsel Süreç İçerisinde İran ve Nükleer Gücü”, Ortadoğu Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi, April 2010, http://www.orsam.org.tr/tr/yazigoster. aspx?ID=751 Accessed on 16 August 2014.
Belebrov, Y.Y. et al., “New Agenda in Russian-Iranian Relations”, In I. S. Ivanov (ed.), Modern Russian and Iranian Relations: Challenges and Opportunities, (Moscow: Spetskniga, 2014), pp. 5-44.
Bercovitch, Jacob, “The Structure and Diversity of Mediation in International Relations”, in Jacob Bercovitch and Jeffrey Z. Rubin (eds.), Mediation in International Relations: Multiple Approaches To Conflict Management, (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 1992), pp. 1-29.
“International Mediation and Intractable Conflict”, Beyond Intractability, January 2004, http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/med-intractable-conflict Accessed on 14 August 2014.
and Allison Houston, “Why Do They Do It like This? An Analysis of Factors Influencing Mediation Behaviour in International Conflicts”, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 44, No. 2, April 2000, pp. 170-202.
Cousens, Elizabeth, “It ain’t over ’till it’s over: what role for mediation in post-agreement contexts?”, The OSLO Forum Network of Mediators, OSLO Forum 2008, pp. 65-71.
Craftword, Jamie et. al., “Russia slams new sanctions against Iran”, CNN International Edition, 22 November 2011, http://edition.cnn.com/2011/11/22/ world/meast/iran-sanctions/ Accessed on 24 August 2014.
Erdbrink, Thomas and Rick Gladstone, “Fearing Prices Increases, Iranians Hoard Goods”, The New York Times, 23 April 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/24/world/middleeast/iran-shoppers-fearingprice-increases-hoard-goods.html Accessed on 4 September 2014.
Erlanger, Steven, “As Negotiators Ease Demands on Iran, More Nuclear Talks Are Set”, New York Times, 27 February 2013, http://www.nytimes. com/2013/02/28/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-talks.html?ref=world Accessed on 3 September 2014.
Ezeozue, Chidozie, “The United States and Iran Nuclear Programme: A Critical Analysis”, Journal of Global Intelligence & Policy, Vol. 6, Issue 10, 2013, pp. 114-123.
Freedman, Robert O, “Russia, Iran and the Nuclear Question: The Putin Record”, The Strategic Studies Institute, November 2006, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub737.pdf Accessed on 17 August 2014.
Gordon, Michael R. and Eric Schmitt, “Negotiators Put Final Touches on Iran Accord”, The New York Times, 12 January 2014
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/13/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal.html Accessed on 6 September 2014.
Harvey, Cole J. and Richard Sabatini, “Russia’s Lukewarm Support for International Sanctions against Iran: History and Motivations”, Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), April 2010, http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/russias-supportsanctions-against-iran/ Accessed on 19 August 2014.
Herszenhorn, David M. and Rick Gladstone, “After Talks End, Iran Announces an Expansion of Nuclear Fuel Production”, The New York Times, 9 April 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/10/world/middleeast/iran-expands-nuclear-fuel-production-after-talks.html?ref=world Accessed on 4 September 2014.
Jan, Mohammad Naqib Ishan, “The Role of Mediation in the Pacific Settlement of International Disputes”, Asia Pacific Mediation Forum
http://www.asiapacificmediationforum.org/resources/2008/6-Muhammad_Naqib. pdf Accessed on 14 August 2014.
Katz, Mark N, “Russia and Iran”, Middle East Policy, Vol. XIX, No. 3, Fall 2012, pp. 54-64.
“Russian-Iranian Relations in the Obama Era”. Middle East Policy, Vol. XVII, No. 2, Summer 2010, pp. 62-69.
Kleiboer, Marieke, “Understanding Success and Failure of International Mediation”, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 40, No. 2, Jun 1996, pp. 360-389.
Keddie, Nikki R., Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution, (New Haven&London: Yale University Press, 2006).
Kozhanov, Nikolay, “Russia, Iran, and the Nuclear Negotiations in Vienna”, Carneige Moscow Center, 27 November 2014, http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?- fa=57331 Accessed on 04 December 2014.
“Russia’s Position on Iran’s Nuclear Program”, The Washington Institute Policy Analysis, 19 April 2012, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/russias-position-on-irans-nuclear-program Accessed on 28 August 2014.
Köse, Talha. İran Nükleer Programı ve Ortadoğu Siyaseti: Güç Dengesi ve Diplomasinin İmkanları, (Ankara: SETA Yayınları III, 2008).
Kressel, Kenneth and Dean G. Pruitt, “Themes in the Mediation of Social Conflict”, Journal of Social Issues, Vol. 41, No. 2, 1985, pp. 179-198.
Kuchins, Andrew C., “Russia’s Contrasting Relations with Turkey and Iran”, CSIS Report on the Turkey, Russia and Iran Nexus Driving Forces and Strategies, March 2013, pp. 281-283.
Kunze, Thomas and Lars Peter Schmidt, “Russia’s Iran Policy Against the Background of Tehran’s Nuclear Programme”, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V., July 2009
http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_17144-544-2-30.pdf?090721133140 Accessed on 20 August 2014.
Maloney, Suzanne, “Three Reasons Why Russia Won’t Wreck the Iranian Nuclear Negotiations”, Brookings, 25 March 2014, http://www.brookings.edu/ blogs/iran-at-saban/posts/2014/03/22-russia-us-tension-sabotage-iran-nuclear-deal Accessed on 5 September 2014.
Mellin, Moly M., “When States Mediate”. Penn State Journal of Law & International Affairs, Vol. 2, Issue 1, April 2013, pp. 77-90.
Milani, Abbas, “Russia and Iran: An Anti-Western Alliance?”, Current History Journal of Contemporary World Affairs, Vol. 106, Issue 702, October 2007, pp.328- 332.
Oğuz Gök, Gonca., “Türk-Amerikan İlişkileri Ekseninde İran’ın Nükleer Faaliyetleri”. In Türel Yılmaz and Mehmet Şahin (eds.), Ortadoğu Siyasetinde İran, (Ankara: Barış Kitap, 2011), pp. 237-283.
Omelichova, Mariya Y. “Russia’s Foreign Policy Toward Iran: A Critical Geopolitics Perspective”. Journal of Balkan and Near East Studies, Vol. 14, No. 3, September 2012, pp. 331-344.
Önder, Ersoy, İran’ın Nükleer Programının Analizi ve Türkiye (İlişkiler, Yaklaşımlar ve Gelişmeler), (İstanbul: IQ Kültür Sanat Yayıncılık, 2013).
Özbay, Fatih, “Realpolitik, Pragmatizm, Ulusal Çıkarlar ve Nükleer Program Ekseninde Dünden Bugüne Rusya-İran İlişkileri. In Kenan Dağcı and Atilla Sandıklı (eds.). Satranç Tahtasında İran: Nükleer Program (İstanbul: Tasam Yayınları, 2007), pp. 151-217.
Parker, John W., “Russia and Iranian Nuclear Program: Replay or Breakthrough”, INSS Strategic Perspectives 9, March 2012.
Rogin, Josh, “Putin Poised to Retaliate Against Obama by Trashing Iran Deal”, The Daily Beast, 18 July 2014, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/18/putin-set-to-retaliate-against-obama-by-trashing-irandeal.html Accessed on 7 September 2014.
Sinkaya, Bayram, “İran’ın Nükleer Programı: Müzakere Sürecinde Umutların Yükselişi ve Düşüşü”, OrtadoğuAnaliz, Aralık 2009, Cilt 1, Sayı 12, pp. 71-79.
Trenin, Dimitri and Alexey Malashenko, “Iran: A View From Moscow”. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010.
Weitz, Richard, “Russia and Iran: A Balancing Act”, The Diplomat, 21 November 2013, http://thediplomat.com/2013/11/russia-and-iran-a-balancing-act/ Accessed on 24 August 2014.
Yeşiltaş, Murat, “İran 2008”. In Kemal İnat, Muhittin Ataman and Burhanettin Duran (eds.), Ortadoğu Yıllığı 2008, (İstanbul: Küre Yayınları, 2009), pp. 71- 101.
Zartman, William and Saadi Touval, “International Mediation: Conflict Resolution and Power Politics”, Journal of Social Issues, Vol. 41, No. 2, 1985, pp. 27- 45.