Mısır'daki Dönüşümün Siyasi Ekonomisi

Bu çalışma, Mısı'ın Mübarek sonrası dönüşüm örneğinden yararlanarak bir siyasal ekonomi analizinin geçis siyaseti dinamiklerine nasıl daha fazla ışık tutabileceği konusunu özetlemenin yanısıra bu dönüşüm süreci sonucunda nelein ortaya çıkabileceğine dair tahminlerde de bulunmaktadır. Özellikle Haggard ve Kaufman'ın (1995), ekonomik etkenlerin siyasi açıdan ilgili grupları tespit edeceğimizi ve bu grupların hızlı siyasi değişim süreçlerinde halk desteğini arkalarına alma veya pekiştirmenin yollarını arama konusunda nasıl hareket edeceklerini açıklığa kavuşturacağımıı öne süren varsayımların analizini yapmaktadır. Burada, Mısır'ın Ocak 2011'den Haziran 2012'ye kadar geçen süreçteki dönüşüm analizi ilk varsayımla çelişmekte, ve bunun yerine, Mısır syasi sahnesinde birbirine cephe alan aktörler arasında ekonomik konulardaki benzerliklerin altını çizmektedir. Ancak ikinci varsayıma destek olarak, hala devam eden ekonomik faktörler de siyasi aktörlerin hareketlerini şekillendirme konusunda oldukça etkilidir. Bu faktörler, yerel bir ktilenin çeşitli taleplerini ve borç veren yabancı kurumların gereksinimlerini karşılamak gibi geçiş ekonomilerinin yüz yüze geldiği ikilem sonucunda şekillenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Mısır, Siyasal Ekonomi, Siyasi Dönüşüm, Demokratikleşme, Otoriterizm, Liberalleşme

The Political Economy of Transition in Egypt

Using the example of Egypt’s post-Mubarak transition, this paper outlines how a political economy analysis can shed further light on the dynamics of transitional politics as well as making tentative predictions on what may emerge from this transitional period. Specifically, it tests Haggard and Kaufman’s (1995) assumptions that economic factors enable us to identify politically relevant groups as well as clarify how these groups will act in seeking to generate and consolidate popular support in times of rapid political change. Here, an analysis of Egypt’s transition from January 2011 to June 2012 contradicts the first assumption, instead highlighting similarities on economic issues amongst confrontational players on the Egyptian political scene. However, it is supportive of the second assumption that, once underway, economic considerations are highly influential in shaping the actions of political players. These considerations are shaped by the dilemma facing transitional economies, that of meeting the divergent demands of a domestic audience and the requirements of foreign lending institutions.

Keywords:

Egypt, Political Economy, Political Transition, Democratisation, Authoritarianism, Liberalisation,

PDF

___

Ayubi, Nazih, Over-Stating the Arab State: Politics and Society in the Mid- dle East, (New York: I.B.Tauris, 1999).
Blaydes, Lisa, Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak’s Egypt, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011).
Brumberg, Daniel, “Democratization in the Arab World? The Trap of Lib- eralized Autocracy”, Journal of Democracy, Volume 13, Number 4, 2002, pp. 56-68.
Carothers, Thomas, “The End of the Transitions Paradigm”, Journal of De- mocracy, Volume 13, Number 1 2002, pp. 5-21.
Chaudhry, Kiren A., The Price of Wealth: Economies and Institutions in the Middle East, (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997).
Cook, Stephen A., “The Promise of Pacts: Getting to Arab Democracy”, Journal of Democracy, Volume 17, Number 1, 2006, pp. 63-74.
Cook, Stephen A., Ruling but not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria and Turkey, (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2007).
Diamond, Larry and Marc Plattner, The Global Resurgence of Democracy, (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1990.
Diamond, Larry, “Why Are There No Arab Democracies?”, Journal of De- mocracy, Volume 21, Number 1 2010, pp. 93-104.
Diamond, Larry, “Elections Without Democracy: Thinking About Hybrid Regimes”, Journal of Democracy, Volume 13, Number 2, 2002, pp. 21-35.
Guazonne, Laura and Daniella Pioppi, (eds) The Arab State and Neo-Lib- eral Globalization: The Restructuring of State Power in the Middle East, (Reading: Ithaca Press, 2009).
Haggard, Stephan and Robert R. Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995).
Hagopian, Frances and Scott Mainwairing, The Third Wave of Democrati- zation in Latin America: Advances and Setbacks, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005)
Haynes, Jeffrey, Democracy in the Developing World: Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2001).
Heydemann, Steven, Upgrading Authoritarianism in the Arab World, (Washington D.C.: The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Borrok- ings Institution, 2007.
Hickel, Jason, “Neoliberal Egypt: The hiacked revolution”, Al Ja- zeera English, 29 March, 2012 , accessed 7 June, 2012
Huntington, Samuel, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twen- tieth Century, (Norma, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991).
International Monetary Fund, “IMF Lending”, 20 March, 2012, , accessed 5 June, 2012
Karatnycky, Adrian and Peter Ackerman, How Freedom is Won: from Civ- ic Resistance to Durable Democracy, (Washington D.C.: Freedom House, ). Krasner, Stephen D., “Sharing Sovereignty: New Institutions for Collapsed and Failing States”, International Security, Volume 29, Number 2, 2004, pp. 85-120.
Lijphart, Arendt, Patters of Democracy: Government Forms and Perfor-rr mance in Thirty-Six Countries (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1999).
Linz, Juan and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and post-Communist Europe, (Balti- more: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996).
MacQueen, Benjamin, “Democracy Promotion and Arab Autocracies”, Global Change, Peace & Security, Volume 21, Number 2, 2009, pp. 165-178.
McFaul, Michael, “The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Non- cooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World”, World Politics, Vol- ume 54, Number 2, 2002, pp. 212-244.
O’Donnell, Guillermo and Philippe Schmitter, Transitions from Authori- tarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Choices, (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986).
Okar, Ellen Lust and Saloua Zerhouni, (eds) Political Participation in the Middle East, (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2008).
Olavarrıà, Maria, “Protected Neoliberalism: Perverse Institutionalization and the Crisis of Representation”, Latin American Perspectives, Volume , Number 6, 2003, pp. 10-38
Özbudun, Ergun, Contemporary Turkish Politics: The Challenges to Dem- ocratic Consolidation, (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2000).
Papagianni, Katia, “Participation and State Legitimation” in Charles L. Call, (ed.) Building States to Build Peace, (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2008), pp. 49-72.
Paris, Roland and Timothy Sisk, (eds) The Dilemmas of Statebuilding: Confronting the Contradictions Postwar Peace Operations, (London: Routledge, 2009).
Paris, Roland, At War’s End, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, ). Pripstein Posusney, Marsha and Michele Penner Angrist (eds) Authoritari- anism in the Middle East: Regimes and Resistance, (Boulder: Lynne Rien- ner, 2005).
Rustow, Dankwart A., “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model”, Comparative Politics, Volume 2, Number 3, 1970, pp. 337-363.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, “Deauville Partnership Finance Ministers’ Meeting Communiqué”, 20 April, 2012,
, accessed June 2012
The Freedom & Justice Party, “FJP 2011 Program on Economic Develop- ment”, 4 December, 2011 , ac- cessed 7 June, 2012
The World Bank, “GINI index”, 5 September, 2011, , accessed 6 June, 2012
Weinstein, Jeremy “Autonomous Recovery and International Interven- tion in Comparative Perspective”, Working Paper, No. 57 (Washington D.C.: Center for Global Development, 2005).