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TÜRKİYE REZERV YETERLİLİĞİ: REZERVLERİN İTHALAT VE KISA VADELİ DIŞ BORÇLARLA KARŞILAŞTIRILMASI ÜZERİNE BİR ANALİZ

Ülke ekonomisinin finansal gücünün bir göstergesi olan ve uluslararası yatırımcılar tarafından önemle dikkate alınan uluslararası rezervlerdeki değişimler, finansal istikrar açısından büyük öneme sahiptir ve akademik literatürde yaygın şekilde çalışılmaktadır. Ülkelerin rezerv yeterliliğinin hesaplanmasında, Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) tarafından, uluslararası rezervleri, yıllık ithalatın %25’i oranında belirtilen optimal rezerv seviyesi ve net uluslararası rezervleri, kısa vadeli dış borç toplamıyla karşılaştırmak şeklinde iki geleneksel yaklaşım kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2011:Ç3-2018:Ç4 döneminde Türkiye’de uluslararası rezervlerin yeterliliğini, Enders and Jones (2016) tarafından geliştirilen Fourier Granger nedensellik testini kullanarak araştırmaktır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, ilk yaklaşıma göre rezervler yeteliyken, ikinci yaklaşım dikkate alındığında rezervlerin yeterli olmadığı görülmektedir.

RESERVE ADEQUACY IN TURKEY: A STUDY ON COMPARISON OF THE RESERVES WITH IMPORTS AND SHORT-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT*

The changes in the international reserves of a country, which reflect the financial power of an economy andconsidered significantly by international investors, are of great importance in terms of financial stability andare taken into consideration increasingly in the academic literature. Two of the traditional criteria used bythe International Monetary Fund to assess reserve adequacy is to compare the international reserve level ofa country with the optimal reserve amount, which represents %25 of the annual imports and to compare netinternational reserve level with short-term external debt. The objective of this study is to investigate theinternational reserve adequacy in Turkey over the period of 2011:Q3-2018:Q4 based on this approaches byemploying Fourier Granger causality test proposed by Enders and Jones (2016). The findings of the analysisindicate that while the reserves are adequate in Turkey according to the first approach, the reserves seeminadequate when taken into account the second approach in the relevant period.

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