Reserve Adequacy in Turkey: A Study on Comparison of The Reserves with Imports and Short-Term External Debt

The changes in the international reserves of a country, which reflect the financial power of an economy and considered significantly by international investors, are of great importance in terms of financial stability and are taken into consideration increasingly in the academic literature. Two of the traditional criteria used by International Money Fund to assess reserve adequacy is to compare the international reserve level of a country with the optimal reserve amount, which represents %25 of the annual imports and to compare net international reserve level with shorterm external debt. The objective of this study is to investigate the international reserve adequacy in Turkey over the period of 2011:Q3-2018:Q4 based on this approaches by employing Fourier Granger causality test. The findings of the analysis indicate that while the reserves are adequate in Turkey according to the first approach, the reserves seem inadequate when taken into account the second approach in the relevant period.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

reserves adequacy, import, short-term external debt

Türkiye Rezerv Yeterliliği: Rezervlerin İthalat Ve Kısa Vadeli Dış Borçlarla Karşılaştırılması Üzerine Bir Analiz

Ülke ekonomisinin finansal gücünün bir göstergesi olan ve uluslararası yatırımcılar tarafından önemle dikkate alınan uluslararası rezervlerdeki değişimler, finansal istikrar açısından büyük öneme sahiptir ve akademik literatürde yaygın şekilde çalışılmaktadır. Ülkelerin rezerv yeterliliğinin hesaplanmasında, Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) tarafından, uluslararası rezervleri, yıllık ithalatın %25’i oranında belirtilen optimal rezerv seviyesi ve net uluslararası rezervleri, kısa vadeli dış borç toplamıyla karşılaştırmak şeklinde iki geleneksel yaklaşım kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2011:Ç3-2018:Ç4 döneminde Türkiye’de uluslararası rezervlerin yeterliliğini, Enders and Jones (2016) tarafından geliştirilen Fourier Granger nedensellik testini kullanarak araştırmaktır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, ilk yaklaşıma göre rezervler yeteliyken, ikinci yaklaşım dikkate alındığında rezervlerin yeterli olmadığı görülmektedir.

Keywords:

ithalat, kısa vadeli dış borç, rezerv yeterliliği,

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