Wesley Clair Mitchell'in iş çevrimleri yaklaşımına kuramsal bir bakış

Wesley Clair Mitchell (1874-1949) iktisat yazınında iş çevrimleri ile ilgili olarak yaptığı ampirik çalışmalarla bilinir. Günümüzde de halen en prestijli kurumlardan biri olarak kabul edilen Ulusal İktisadi Araştırmalar Bürosu (National Bureau of Economic Research-NBER)nun kurucusu ve 1949 yılına kadar yürütücüsüdür. Mitchell NBERde yaptığı çalışmalarla gerek dönemin gelişmiş ülkelerinde yaşanan çevrimlere ilişkin kapsamlı bir veri seti oluşturmuş gerek de bu çevrimleri analiz edebilmek için çok sayıda istatistiksel ölçüm ve analiz yöntemi geliştirmiştir. Bu çalışmalar, Mitchellın iktisat yazınında daha çok ampirik bir iktisatçı olarak ün kazanmasına neden olmuştur. Mitchellın analizinde ampirik analiz yöntemini yoğun bir şekilde kullanması katkısının esas olarak ampirik gözlemlerden ibaret olduğu ve teorik açıdan iş çevrimleri literatürüne önemli bir katkı yapmadığı yolunda eleştiriler almasına neden olmuştur. Mitchellın ampirizmini değerlendirirken onun bir kurumsal iktisatçı olduğu ve hocası Veblenin neoklasik iktisada yönelttiği eleştirileri ve evrimsel bir bilim için önerilerini paylaştığı göz önünde bulundurulmalıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Mitchellin iş çevrimleri analizini kuramsal düzeyde incelemek ve iş çevrimleri literatürüne yaptığı katkıyı değerlendirmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda bu çalışma dört bölümden oluşmaktadır. Birinci bölümde, Mitchellın iş çevrimleri literatüründeki yerini ortaya koymak amacıyla iş çevrimlerine ilişkin teorik gelişmelerin kısa bir özetine yer verilecektir. İkinci bölümde, Mitchellin para ekonomisi olarak nitelendirdiği modern kapitalizme ilişkin görüşleri değerlendirilecek; üçüncü bölümde, Mitchellın iş çevrimlerinin nasıl ortaya çıktığı, hangi aşamalardan geçtiği ve bu aşamaları niteleyen temel özelliklerin neler olduğuna ilişkin görüşlerine yer verilerek Mitchellın iş çevrimleri analizi kuramsal düzeyde incelenecektir. Son bölümde ise, Mitchellın söz konusu iş çevrimlerinin kapitalist sistem içinde denetim altına alınıp alınamayacağı yolundaki görüşlerine ve buradan yola çıkarak istikrarsızlıkları ortadan kaldırmak için önerdiği politikalara değinilecektir. Çalışma söz konusu bilgiler ışığında Mitchellın iş çevrimleri kuramının önemi ve literatüre katkısının değerlendirilmesi ile son bulacaktır.

A theoretical overview of the business cycle approach of Wesley Clair Mitchell

Wesley Clair Mitchell (1874-1949) is known for his empirical studies regarding business cycles in economics literature. He is the founder and until 1949 was the executive head of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which is still considered to be one of the most prestigious institutions nowadays. By his studies Mitchell not only created a comprehensive set of data related to cycles in developed countries, but also developed a number of statistical measurements and analysis methods in order to analyze these cycles. These studies made him to be considered as an empirical economist. Due to an intensive usage of empirical methods in his analysis, he was critized that his contribution consisted of solely empirical observations and that from a theoretical standpoint he did not make a significant contribution to the business cycles literature. When evaluating Mitchells empricism, it should be taken into account that Mitchell is an institutional economist and that he shared both Veblens critics toward the neoclassical economics and his proposals for an evolutionary science. The aim of this study is to examine the business cycles analysis of Mitchell theoretically and to evaluate his contribution to the business cycles literature. In this regard, this study consists of four parts. In the first part, a short summary of the theoretical developments about business cycles will be given in order to assess the place of Mitchell in that literature. In the second part, his views about the modern capitalism as he calls monetary economy will be evaluated. By putting forth his arguments as to how his business cycles have emerged, from which stages they have proceeded and what the main characteristics of these stages are, in the third part Mitchells business cycle analysis will be examined on a theoretical level. In the last part, his opinions about whether the aforementioned business cycles can be regulated in the capitalist system and parting from here, his policy proposals to eliminate the instabilities will be mentioned. The study will end with an evaluation of importance of Mitchells business cycle theory and his contribution to the literature.

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