Enflasyon hedeflemesi döneminde küresel talep ve yurtiçi enflasyon

Türkiye’nin dışa açık bir ekonomiye sahip olması sebebiyle yurtiçi enflasyon oranının küresel talep gelişmelerinden etkilenmesi kaçınılmazdır. Bu çalışmada enflasyon hedeflemesinin izlendiği dönemde, yurtiçi enflasyon oranının küresel talep gelişmelerine tepkisi İleriye Dönük Phillips Eğrisi aracılığıyla incelenmiştir. 2003:Q1-2011:Q4 dönemini kapsayan en küçük kareler (OLS) ve genelleştirilmiş momentler yöntemi (GMM) tahminleri, yurtiçi enflasyon oranının gerek ulusal çıktı açığı değişkenine gerekse küresel talep gelişmelerini de içeren birleştirilmiş çıktı açığı değişkenine pozitif yönde tepki verdiğini göstermiştir. Tahmin sonuçları, istatistiksel anlamlılık açısından birleştirilmiş çıktı açığının ulusal çıktı açığına nazaran daha yüksek açıklayıcılığa sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu bulgu yurtiçi enflasyon oranını kontrol etmeye çalışan merkez bankasının sadece ulusal talep koşullarını değil, küresel talep koşullarını da dikkate alıyor olmasına destek teşkil etmektedir. JEL Sınıflandırması: C54, E52, E58.

Global demand and domestic inflation in inflation targeting period

Domestic inflation in Turkey is not immune to the fluctuations of global demand, owing to the high degree of openness of the economy. This relationship is examined in this study by means of the forward-looking Phillips curve. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimates for the 2003:Q1-2011:Q4 period indicate that domestic inflation responds positively to the national output gap as well as the composite output gap indicator that further incorporates global demand conditions. Estimation results show that in terms of the statistical significance, the composite output gap has more explanatory power than domestic output gap. These findings support the observation that the inflation targeting central bank has been taking into consideration not only the domestic but also foreign demand. JEL Classification: C54, E52, E58.

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