GÜÇ GEÇİŞ TEORİSİ VE ÇOKLU HİYERARŞİ MODELİNİ YENİDEN DÜŞÜNMEK: DÜNYA GÜÇ HİYERARŞİSİNDEKİ DEĞİŞİMİN TEORİK ANALİZİ

Bu çalışma, Güç Geçiş Teorisi’nin temel varsayımlarını açıklayarak Türkçe literatüre katkıda bulunmak amacıyla hazırlanmıştır. Ülkelerin gücünü oluşturan iç kapasiteleri, ekonomik, askeri, demografik, topraksal ve teknolojik birçok değişkeni kapsar. Bu içsel kapasiteler durağan değildir. Devletlerin askeri ve ekonomik büyümelerinin getirdiği yükseliş trendi, bu devletlerin güçlerinin birbirlerine yaklaşarak uluslararası sistemin istikrarsızlaşmasına neden olur. Uluslararası sistemde tatmin olmayan devletlerin, uluslararası sistem hiyerarşisinde bir revizyon yaratma girişimi, küresel sistemi savaşa sürükleyebilir. Bu çalışma uluslararası sistemdeki kırılmaları ampirik yöntemlerle ortaya koyan Organski’nin Güç Geçiş Teorisi aracılığı ile günümüz uluslararası sistemini analiz etmek amacıyla hazırlanmıştır. Bu bağlamda GGT’nin temel varsayımları ortaya konularak günümüzde yaşanan sistemik kırılmaların dünya siyasetini nasıl etkilediği incelenmektedir. Literatürde önemli ölçüde güç geçiş teorisi uygulaması bulunmakla birlikte gerek yerel hiyerarşide gerekse uluslararası hiyerarşide Çin’in yükselişi ampirik olarak gözlemlenebilir niteliktedir. Nitekim yeni hegemonun Çin olacağı birçok yazarın ortak görüşü olup veriyle de desteklenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Güç Geçiş Teorisi, Çoklu Hiyerarşi, Uluslararası Sistem, Denklik/Baskınlık, Çin

RETHINKING POWER TRANSITION THEORY AND MULTIPLE HIERARCHY MODEL: THEORETICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CHANGE ON WORLD POWER HIERARCHY

This study was prepared to explain the basic assumptions of Power Transition Theory in order to contribute Turkish international relations literature. The analysis of material capacities of countries comprises various variables such as economic, military, demographic, territorial and technological. These material capacities are not constant. Rising military and economic trends of national material capabilities may result in instability of the international system, due to power parity among the states. At the end of this process, the World may be dragged into a global war due to the dissatisfaction of the states. This study is prepared to explain power shifts within the international system on the basis of Organski’s Power Transition Theory. It is reviewed in the context of this study that how World politics is affected by the systemic disequilibrium. Power Transition Theory and the rise of China is empirically one of the most studied cases in the context of local and international hierarchy. Indeed, most scholars accept that the new preponderant would possibly be China after the US hegemony on the basis of empirical analyses.

Keywords:

Power Transition Theory, Multiple Hierarchy, International System, Parity/Preponderance,

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