Vergi Yapısının Yurt İçi Tasarruflar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye’den İller Düzeyinde Bir Kanıt

Vergi sistemindeki vergi yapısı ve kompozisyonları tüketim, tasarruf, yatırım gibi iktisadi davranışları doğrudan ya da dolaylı olarak etkilemektedir. Buradan hareketle çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 2006-2018 yılları arasında, il düzeyinde, dolaylı ve dolaysız vergilerin tasarruflar üzerindeki etkisini panel veri analizi yöntemiyle ölçmektir. Analiz sonuçları dolaylı ve dolaysız vergiler ile tasarruflar arasında çift yönlü nedensellik olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Uzun dönem etkilere bakıldığında, dolaysız vergilerin tasarrufları negatif, dolaylı vergilerin ise pozitif yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen uzun dönemli güçlü sonuçlar, Türkiye’de tasarruf politikalarında vergi politikaları ve vergi yapısının dikkate alınması gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

The Impact of Tax Structure on Domestic Savings: An Empirical Evidence from Turkey Provinces

Tax structure and composition in tax systems affect economic behaviors such as consumption, savings, investment directly or indirectly. The aim of the study is to reveal the effect of direct and indirect taxes on savings at the provincial level in Turkey between 2006-2018 using panel data analysis. The results show that there are two-way causal relationships between direct taxes, indirect taxes, and savings. Long-term effects have shown that direct taxes affect savings negatively, while indirect taxes affect savings positively. Remarkable long-term findings indicate that tax policy and tax structure should be taken into account for savings policies in Turkey.

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