Faiz Dışı Fazlanın Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Doğrusal Olmayan Bir Analiz

Literatürde faiz dışı fazlanın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini inceleyen çalışma sayısı oldukça az olup, çalışmaların neredeyse tamamı doğrusal model analizine dayanmaktadır. Benzer şekilde Türkiye üzerine yapılan çalışmaların tamamında yine doğrusal tahmin yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de faiz dışı fazlanın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini doğrusal olmayan zaman serisi analiziyle incelemektir. Bu amaçla 1980-2019 dönemi yıllık verilerinden oluşan model Dufrénot vd. (2006) doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşme testi ve STAR ARDL yaklaşımıyla tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen tahmin sonuçlarına göre faiz dışı fazla değişkeni ekonomik büyümeyi etkilememektedir.

The Effect of Primary Surplus on Economic Growth: A Non-Linear Analysis on Turkish Economy

In the literature, there are very few studies examining the effect of primary surplus on economic growth, and almost all of the studies are based on linear model analysis. Likewise, linear estimation methods were used in all studies on Turkey. The aim of this study was to examine the impact on economic growth in Turkey's primary surplus through the nonlinear time series analysis. For this purpose, the model consisting of the annual data from the period of 1980-2019 was estimated by Dufrénot et al. (2006) nonlinear cointegration test and STAR ARDL approach. According to the estimation results obtained, the variable of primary surplus does not affect economic growth.

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