BİROL KARAKURT, SUAT HAYRİ ŞENTÜRK, BURAK ŞAHİNGÖZ

Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamalarının Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Türkiye’ye yönelik iç ve dış tehdit unsurlarının çokluğu savunma harcamalarının yüksek seviyede tutulmasına sebep olmaktadır. Savunma harcamalarının makroekonomik değişkenlerle ilişkisi birçok çalışmaya konu olmuştur. Buna karşın, savunma harcamalarının enflasyonla etkileşimi hakkında ortak bir kanı bulunmamaktadır. Çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1966- 2016 döneminde savunma harcamaları ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişkinin analizi hedeflenmiştir. Dönemin uzunluğu yapısal kırılmaları dikkate almayı gerektirmektedir. Bu amaçla, Maki yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testinden faydalanılan araştırma sonuçları kısa ve uzun dönemde savunma harcamalarından enflasyona doğru tek yönlü pozitif nedensellik ilişkisine işaret etmektedir.

The Effects of Military Expenditures on Inflation in Turkey: A Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks

Internal and external threats to Turkey lead her to have its military expenditures at a high level. The relationship between military expenditures and macroeconomic variables has been of great interest to a number of studies. However, there is no common view about the relationship between military expenditures and the inflation. In this study, the relationship between military expenditures and the inflation in Turkey is aimed to be analysed for the period 1966-2016. The length of the study period requires considering structural breaks. Therefore, according to the results of our study that benefits from a Maki cointegration test with structural breaks and Toda-Yamamoto causality test, a unidirectional positive causality between military expenditures and the inflation has been found both in the short- and the long- run.

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