Reel Döviz Kuru Oynaklığının Sektörel Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği1

Çalışmanın amacı reel döviz kuru oynaklığının doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektir. Sektörler, reel döviz kuru oynaklığı ve makroekonomik değişkenler ile etkileşimleri dikkate alınarak birincil (tarım, madencilik &taş ocaklığı), ikincil (imalat) ve üçüncül (hizmetler) olarak ayrılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, reel döviz kuru oynaklığının imalat sektörüne gelen DYY’ler üzerinde pozitif etkilerinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Reel döviz kurunun hizmetler alt sektörlerine gelen DYY’ler üzerinde hem pozitif hem de negatif etkileri bulunmaktadır. Dışa açıklığın tarım dışındaki sektörlere gelen DYY’ler üzerinde pozitif etkileri bulunmaktadır. Fiyatlar genel seviyesi, imalat sektöründeki DYY’ler üzerinde negatif etkiye sahiptir. Reel GSYİH’nin hizmetler sektörüne gelen DYY’ler üzerinde pozitif etkileri bulunmaktadır.

The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Sectoral Composition of Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from Turkey

The aim of this paper is to analyze effects of real exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI). The sectors are separated as primary (agriculture, mining & quarrying), secondary (manufacturing) and tertiary (services) sectors by taking their interactions with real exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic variables into consideration. The empirical results show that real exchange rate volatility has positive effects on FDI inflows to the manufacturing sector. Real exchange rate has both positive and negative effects on FDI inflows to the services sub-sectors. Openness to trade has positive effects on FDI inflows to all sectors except for agriculture. General price level has a negative impact on FDI inflows to the manufacturing sector. Real GDP has positive effects on the FDI inflows to the services sector.

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