Otomatik Stabilizatör Olarak İşsizlik Sigortası Ödeneği: Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de ekonomik konjonktür dönemlerinde işsizlik ödeneğinin otomatik stabilizatör olup olmadığı Johansen eşbütünleşme, vektör hata düzeltme modeli ve Granger nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada, 2005 Ocak ve 2017 Ekim dönemini kapsayan aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Sonuçta beklentilerle uyumlu olarak sanayi üretim endeksi ile verilen işsizlik ödeneği arasında; sanayi üretim endeksi ile işsizlik oranı arasında; verilen işsizlik ödeneği ile işsizlik oranı arasında; işsizlik oranı ile sanayi üretim endeksi arasında kısa dönemli nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, sanayi üretim endeksi ile verilen işsizlik ödeneği arasında çift yönlü, diğer değişkenler arasında ise tek yönlü bir ilişki bulunmuştur.

The Unemployment Insurence Benefıt as an Automatic Stabilizator: Turkey Case

In this study, whether the unemployment benefit is an automatic stabilizer in the business cycle of Turkey analyzed by Johansen Cointegration, Vector Error Correction model and Granger causality test. The data set covers the period from January, 2004 to October, 2017. According to the results, in line with expectations, it was determined that there is a short-term causality relationship among the industrial production index, given unemployment benefit and unemployment rate. Moreover, there is a bidirectional relationship between the industrial production index and the unemployment benefit, while there is a unidirectional relationship among the other variables.

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