Sinem ATICI USTALAR, Ayçıl YÜCER

Küresel Finans Krizi ve Büyük Tecrit Sürecinde Dış Ticaretin Uluslararası Hisse Senedi Yatırımları Üzerindeki Etkisi

Ülkelerin yak ın ticaret partnerleri ile daha çok finansal yatırımda bulunduğu, ticaret ile finansal yat ırımlar aras ındaki ili şkinin küresel kriz süreçlerinde farklı laştığı görülmektedir. Bu çal ışma, mal ticaretinin ülkelerin karşılıklı hisse senedi yatırımlarına olan etkisini ve bu etkinin 2008 Küresel Finans Krizi ve Büyük Tecrit bağlamında nasıl de ğiştiğini çekim modeli yard ımıyla analiz etmektedir. Çekim modeli, finansal yatırımlar ve dış ticaret arasındaki içsellik sorununu önlemek için vekil değişkeni yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Ampirik model sonuçlar ı, içsellik sorunu kontrol edildiğinde, mal ticaretinin hisse senedi ticaretini azalttığını göstermektedir. Bu negatif ilişki, 2008 krizinde de ğişmezken; Covid-19 krizinde mal ithalatının hisse senedi yatırımlarını arttırdığı görülmektedir.

The Impact of Foreign Trade on International Equity Investments During Global Financial Crisis and Great Lockdown Period

Countries more invest to their close trade partners and this relationship between trade and financial investments differs during the global crisis processes. This study analyzes the effect of commodity trade on bilateral equity investments and how this effect changed in the context of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the Great Lockdown with the gravity model. The gravity model has been estimated with the instrumental variable method to avoid the endogeneity between two flows. The results show that trade reduces equity investment. While this relationship did not change in the 2008 crisis, it is seen that the import in creased the equity investments in the Covid-19 crisis.

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