FREKANS ORAN, ANALİTİK HİYERARŞİ VE LOJİSTİK REGRESYON MODELLERİNİN TAŞKIN TEHLİKE TAHMİNİNDE KARŞILAŞTIRMALI KULLANIMI, FATSA İLÇE MERKEZİ VE YAKIN ÇEVRESİ ÖRNEĞİ

Topografyanın eğimli ve dik olması, yaz aylarında meydana gelen ekstrem yağışlar ve dere yataklarında yapılaşmanın artışı nedeniyle Fatsa (Ordu) ilçe merkezi ve yakın çevresi son yıllarda giderek daha fazla taşkına maruz kalmaktadır. Bu nedenle taşkın yayılış alanlarının doğru ve tutarlı bir şekilde oluşturulabilmesi için frekans oran metodu, analitik hiyerarşi süreci ve lojistik regresyon modelleri kullanılmıştır. Taşkın alanları AFAD ve Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğünden elde edilmiş, taşkını etkileyen 11 bağımsız değişkenle taşkın tehlike tahmin modelleri oluşturulmuştur. Buna göre frekans oran metoduna göre 19,5 km2, analitik hiyerarşi sürecine göre 30,7 km2 ve lojistik regresyon modeline göre 14 km2 alan, yüksek ve çok yüksek riskli taşkın alanı olarak hesaplanmıştır. Bu alanlar nüfus ve yerleşmenin yoğun olduğu Fatsa ilçe merkezine ve vadi tabanlarına karşılık gelmektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan üç yöntemden en yüksek doğruluk oranına sahip model, frekans oran metodudur (%95,9). Ancak arazi gözlemleri neticesinde lojistik regresyon modeli ile oluşturulan taşkın tehlike tahmini haritası, diğer yöntemlere göre doğruya en yakın olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Akarsu mecrasındaki yerleşim alanlarında taşkınların önlenmesi ve iyileştirilmesi için öncelik verilmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Taşkın Analizi, Fatsa, Frekans Oran, Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci, Lojistik Regresyon Modeli

COMPARATIVE USE OF FREQUENCY RATIO, ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS IN FLOOD HAZARD ESTIMATION, EXAMPLE OF FATSA DISTRICT CENTER AND ITS ENVIRONS

The topography is inclined and upright, excessive rainfall in the summer increase and filling of stream beds with settlement, the Fatsa (Ordu) district center and the near circumference is increasingly exposed to more stones in recent years. For this reason, the frequency rate method, analytical hierarchy process and logistic regression models were used so that torrent and flooding areas can be formed correctly and consistently. Flood areas were obtained from AFAD and the General Directorate of Meteorology. Flood hazard prediction models were created with 11 independent variables affecting the floods. Accordingly, 19.5 km2 according to the frequency ratio method, 30.7 km2 according to the analytical hierarchy process and 14 km2 according to the logistic regression model were calculated as a high and very high risk flood area. These fields correspond to the Fatsa County Center and Valley floor where the population and settlement are intensive. The model with the highest accuracy rate of three methods used in the study is the frequency rate method (95.9%). However, the flood hazard estimated map, created with the logistic regression model, is calculated to be more accurate than other methods as a result of land observations. It is necessary to give priority to the prevention and improvement of floods in the settlements in the course of the rivers.

Keywords:

Flood Analysis, Fatsa, Frequency Ratio, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Logistic Regression Model,

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