2018 Milletvekili Genel ve Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimlerinde Elit Karşıtı Tutumlar ve Seçmen Davranışı İlişkisi

Popülizmin son yıllardaki yükselişine talep temelli açıklamalar getiren çalışmalarda seçmenlerin popülist tutumları ile popülist parti ve adaylara oy destekleri arasında pozitif bir örüntü olduğu öne sürülmektedir. Popülizmin çeşitli tanımlarında yer alan elit karşıtlığı ile seçmen davranışı arasındaki ilişkiye odaklanan çalışmalardaysa kuramsal beklentilerle aynı ölçüde uyumlu sonuçlara ulaşılmamaktadır. Bu ilişkiyi Türkiye özelinde değerlendiren makalede temsili bir anket çalışmasının verileri ve nicel yöntemler kullanılarak, 2018 Genel ve Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerindeki oy verme ve seçime katılım davranışları incelenmektedir. Çalışmada popülist bir partinin uzun süredir iktidarda olduğu Türkiye’de elit kavramının iktidardaki partinin seçkinlerini tanımlar hale geldiğini ve elit karşıtlığının bu nedenle popülist parti ve adaylara oy verme olasılığı üzerinde pozitif bir etkisi olmadığı öne sürülmektedir. Çokterimli lojistik regresyonlar bu beklentileri destekleyerek, elit yanlısı seçmenlerin popülist partilere ve adayına oy verme eğiliminde olduğunu göstermektedir. Ampirik bulguların popülizm, karşılaştırmalı siyaset, Türkiye siyaseti ve demokratik temsiliyet açılarından birçok önemli sonucu tartışılmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Popülist tutumlar, elit karşıtı tutumlar, seçmen davranışı, Haziran 2018 seçimleri, Türkiye siyaseti

On the Relationship between Anti-Elitist Attitudes and Electoral Behavior in the 2018 Parliamentary and Presidential Elections

Demand based explanations for the rapidly growing significance of populism in many countries show a positive relationship between the populist attitudes of citizens and support for populist parties. The findings in previous research on the relationship between antielitist attitudes, a widely accepted pillar of various populism definitions, and electoral behavior are, however, not as consonant with theoretical expectations in previous literature. In this particular study on Turkey, adopting a demand based explanation, a representative survey data and a quantitative approach are employed to analyze the electoral behavior in the June 2018 Parliamentary and Presidential Elections. It is argued that the word elite corresponds to the incumbent party and its leaders, rather than the very subject of the populist discourse; therefore, anti-elitist attitudes do not affect electoral support for populist parties and candidates in Turkey positively, where a populist party has been in power for more than twenty years. Multinomial logistical regression estimates, which suggest that pro-elitist voters are more likely to support populist parties and candidates, provide support for our expectations. The implications of our findings from the perspectives of populism, comparative politics, and Turkish politics, and democratic representation are contended in the conclusion.

Keywords:

Populist attitudes, anti-elitist attitudes, electoral behavior, June 2018 elections, Turkish politics,

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