Rusya’nın 2000 Sonrası ‘Geniş Karadeniz’ Politikasının Savunmacı Realist Bakışla Analizi

Sovyetler Birliği’nin dağılmasından sonra bağımsız bir devlet olarak yaklaşık on yıl kendi çok boyutlu iç sorunları ve yeniden yapılanmasıyla meşgul olan Rusya’nın, 2000’de Putin’in devlet başkanlığı ile başlayan yeni dönemde dış politikası dikkat çekmeye başlamıştır. 2008’de Gürcistan’a askerî müdahale, 2014’te Kırım’ın ilhakı ve sonrasında yaşanan gelişmeler Rusya’nın dış politikası üzerine akademik tartışmaları da artırmıştır. Tartışmalarda önce çıkan ve özellikle Batılı çevrelerde hakim bakış açısı, Rusya’nın büyük güç statüsüne geri dönüş arayan, gücünü maksimize etmeye ve Geniş Karadeniz’de bölgesel hegemon olmaya çalışan, revizyonist bir devlet olduğunu savunurken, azınlıkta olan yaklaşım ise Rusya’nın esas itibariyle, ABD ve NATO başta olmak üzere, Batı’dan bekasına yönelik algıladığı güvenlik tehditleri nedeniyle yeterli gücü arama eğiliminde olduğunu ve yakın çevresinde ve Geniş Karadeniz’de statükoyu muhafaza etmeye çalıştığını öne sürmektedir. Devletlerin dış politika davranışlarını açıklayan uluslararası ilişkiler kuramları açısından birinci grup saldırgan, ikinci grup ise savunmacı realizmin varsayımları ile örtüşmektedir. Bu makalede, savunmacı realist bir çerçeve kullanılarak Geniş Karadeniz Bölgesine yönelik Rus dış politikası analiz edilmektedir.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE POST-2000 "WIDER BLACK SEA" POLICY OF RUSSIA THROUGH A DEFENSIVE REALIST PERSPECTIVE

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia spent the its first ten years as an independent country dealing with its many multidimensional domestic problems and restructuring the state. When Putin came to power in 2000, a new period began, together with an eye-catching foreign policy. The Russian military intervention in Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea in 2014 alongside subsequent developments have all fueled discussions in academic circles about Russia's foreign policy. The dominant point of view in these debates – especially in Western countries – argues that Russia is a revisionist state that seeks to revamp its former glory, maximize its power, and becoming a regional hegemon throughout the Wider Black Sea. Another approach argues that Russia tends to seek sufficient power due to the perceived security threats to its very survival hailing from the West (especially from the USA and NATO), and that it is trying to maintain in status quo within its immediate environs. In terms of international relations theories about foreign policy behaviour, the first group overlaps with the assumptions of offensive realism, while the second group overlaps with defensive realism. This article will analyze Russia’s foreign policy towards the Wider Black Sea through the lens of defensive realism.

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