Sosyal Harcamaların OECD Ülkelerindeki Belirleyicilerinin İncelenmesi

Ülkelerin yaşadıkları ekonomik krizler devamında devletin ekonomi içerisindeki rolünü gündeme getirmektedir. Yaşanan krizler çok boyutlu olarak ekonomiyi etkiler. Ancak temel gösterge olarak işsizlik, gelir dağılımı bozukluğu ve büyüme oranlarındaki düşüş dikkat çekmektedir. Bu ekonomik ve sosyal sorunların önlenmesi için maliye politikası aracı olan sosyal transfer harcamaları kullanılmaktadır. Sosyal transfer harcaması devletin dar gelirli ve savunmasız hanelere yaptığı ayni ve nakdi ödemelerden oluşmaktadır. Bu çalışmada amaç sosyal transfer harcama politikalarının belirleyicilerinin üzerinden etkin bir ekonomi politikası önerisi sunmaktır. Çalışma panel veri ekonometrisi yöntem olarak kullanılmıştır. Çalışma 2007-2017 yılları arasını kapsamaktadır. İktisadi İşbirliği ve Gelişme Teşkilatı (OECD) üye ülkeleri analize dahil edilmiştir. Sosyal transfer harcamalarının GSYH içerisindeki payı, nüfus, işsizlik, büyüme, bağımlılık oranı ve eğitim seviyesi değişken olarak alınmıştır. Çalışmanın önemli özelliği literatürde boşluk olarak görülen makro değişkenlerin sosyal transfer harcamaları üzerine etkisinin incelenmesidir. Çalışma sonucunda eğitim seviyesindeki artış ve ekonomik büyümenin sosyal transfer harcamalarını azaltıcı etkisi ortaya çıkarken, bağımlılık oranı ve işsizlikteki artışın sosyal transfer harcamalarını artırıcı yönde etkisi ortaya çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Sosyal transfer, OECD ülkeleri, Panel veri analizi, Tesadüfi etkiler modeli

Analysing the Determinants of Social Expenditures in OECD Countries

Economic crises experienced by countries bring the role of the state in the economy to the agenda. Crises affect the economy in many dimensions. However, unemployment, income distribution disorder, and a decline in growth rates draw attention as the main indicators. Social transfer expenditures, which are fiscal policy instruments, are used to prevent these economic and social problems. Social transfer expenditure consists of in-kind and cash payments made by the state to low-income and vulnerable households. The aim of this study is to provide an effective economic policy proposal through the determinants of social transfer expenditure policies. The study uses panel data econometrics as a method. The study covers the period between 2007-2017. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries are included in the analysis. The share of social transfer expenditures in GDP, population, unemployment, growth, dependency ratio, and education level are taken as variables. The important feature of the study is to examine the effect of macro variables on social transfer expenditures, which is a gap in the literature. As a result of the study, while the increase in the level of education and economic growth have a decreasing effect on social transfer expenditures, the increase in the dependency ratio and unemployment have an increasing effect on social transfer expenditures.

Keywords:

Social Transfer, OECD countries, Panel data analysis, Random effect model,

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