Türkiye Ekonomisinde İhracatın İthalata Bağımlılığı, Bütünleşik Talep ve Gelir Dağılımı: Post-Keynesyen Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisinde ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığının bütünleşik talep ve gelirin fonksiyonel dağılımı arasındaki ilişkiye olan etkisini araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla Stockhammer, Hein ve Grafl (2011) tarafından önerilen model kullanılmış ve 1988-2019 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisine uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye’de örneklem dönemi boyunca talep rejiminin ücret-çekişli olduğunu ve ihracatın ithalat içeriğinin analize dahil edilmesinin talep rejimini biraz daha ücret-çekişli hale getirdiğini göstermektedir. Alt dönem analizleri, toplam gelirdeki daha yüksek bir emek payının net ihracat üzerindeki olumsuz etkisinin 1995-98 alt döneminden 2008-18 alt dönemine kadar mutlak değer olarak iki katına çıkmasına rağmen özel tüketim harcamaları üzerindeki olumlu etkisinin onu dengelemekle kalmayıp aştığını, bununla birlikte özel yatırımlar üzerindeki olumsuz etkisinin alt dönemler boyunca nispeten küçük ve sabit kaldığını gösteriyor. Bulgularımız aynı zamanda ihracatın ithalat içeriğinin analize dahil edilmesinin bütün alt dönemleri bir miktar daha ücret-çekişli hale getirdiğini gösteriyor.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

gelir dağılımı, toplam talep, dış ticaret, küreselleşme, post-Keynesyen iktisat

Import Dependence of Exports, Aggregate Demand and Income Distribution in the Turkish Economy: A Post-Keynesian Econometric Analysis

This study aims to investigate the impact of import dependence on exports on the relation between aggregate demand and functional distribution of income in the Turkish economy. To achieve this, the model proposed by Stockhammer, Hein, and Grafl (2011) was employed and applied to the Turkish economy throughout 1988-2019. The findings indicate that the demand regime was wage-led in Türkiye throughout the sample period, and the integration of import content of exports into the analysis renders the demand regime even slightly more wage-led. Subperiod analyses show that even though the negative effect of a higher labor share in total income on net exports has doubled in absolute value from the 1995-98 subperiod to the 2008-18 subperiod, the positive effect of a higher labor share on private consumption expenditures did not only counterbalance but exceeded it, while its negative effect on private investment remained relatively small and constant over the subperiods. Our findings also show that the integration of import content of exports into the analysis also rendered all the subperiods moderately more wage-led.

Keywords:

income distribution, aggregate demand, foreign trade, globalization, post-Keynesian economics,

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