Bootstrap Fourier AARDL Yöntemiyle J Eğrisi Hipotezinin Türkiye’nin Balkanlarla Dış Ticaretinde Geçerliliğinin Analizi

Bu araştırmada Türkiye’nin 7 Balkan Ülkesiyle olan ikili ticaretinde J Eğrisi Hipotezinin geçerliliği, 2000-2022 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak, Fourier zaman serisi analizi yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. Serilerin durağanlık seviyeleri Enders ve Lee (2012) Fourier ADF birim kök testiyle araştırılmış, eşbütünleşme sınaması ve regresyon analizlerinde McNown vd. (2018), Sam vd. (2019) ve Solarin (2019) çalışmalarıyla geliştirilen Fourier Bootstrap AARDL yöntemiyle yapılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme testlerinde; Macaristan, Makedonya, Sırbistan ve Bosna-Hersek’te eşbütünleşme olmadığı görülürken, Bulgaristan, Hırvatistan ve Karadağ’da eşbütünleşme tespit edilmiştir. Son üç ülke için gerçekleştirilen analizlerde; reel döviz kurundaki artışların Türkiye’nin Bulgaristan, Hırvatistan ve Karadağ karşısındaki dış ticaret dengesini kısa dönemde daha da bozduğu, uzun dönemdeyse Bulgaristan ve Karadağ karşısındaki dış ticaret dengesini iyileştirdiği saptanmıştır. Bu nedenle J Eğrisi Hipotezinin Türkiye – Bulgaristan ve Türkiye – Karadağ dış ticaretlerinde geçerli olduğuna karar verilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

J Eğrisi Hipotezi, Türkiye ve Balkan Ülkeleri İkili Ticaret, Fourier Bootstrap AARDL Yöntemi

Analysis Of The Validity Of The J Curve Hypothesis For Turkey's Foreign Trade with The Balkans Using The Bootstrap Fourier AARDL Method

The aim of the study is to examine the validity of the J Curve Hypothesis in Turkey’s bilateral trade with 7 Balkan Countries by using monthly data for the period between 2000 and 2022 via Fourier time series analysis methods. The stationary levels of the series were investigated by Enders and Lee (2012) by using the Fourier ADF unit root test and Fourier Bootstrap AARDL method, which was developed by the studies of McNown et al. (2018), Sam et al. (2019), and Solarin (2019), was used for cointegration test and regression analysis. In the cointegration tests, it was found that there was no cointegration in Hungary, Macedonia, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, cointegration was found in Bulgaria, Croatia, and Montenegro. In the regression analyses conducted for the last three countries, the increases in the real exchange rate disrupted the foreign trade balance of Turkey more against Bulgaria, Croatia, and Montenegro in the short term and improved against Bulgaria and Montenegro in the long term. Thus, it has been decided that the J Curve Hypothesis is valid in the foreign trade of Turkey-Bulgaria and Turkey-Montenegro.

Keywords:

J Curve Hypothesis, Turkey and Balkans Countries, Fourier Bootstrap AARDL Method,

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