Gökhan DEMİRTAŞ, Şule YÜKSEL ÇAKIRCA, Ebuzer AKSEL

Türkiye’de Bölgesel Kalkınmanın Bir Belirleyicisi Olarak Uluslararası Göç Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz

Bölgesel kalkınma, bölgeler arası eşitsizliklerin giderilmesine katkıda bulunmaktadır. Eğitim, sağlık ve altyapı alanında yapılan kamu yatırımları, bölgelerdeki faktör verimliliğini artırdığı için eşitsizlikle mücadelede önemli bir role sahiptir. Uluslararası göç ise beşerî sermaye ve dış ticaret olmak üzere iki kanal üzerinden bölgesel kalkınmayı etkilemektedir. Göçmenler, bir bölgedeki beşerî sermayeyi ve dolayısıyla faktör verimliliğini artırdığı için bölgesel kalkınmaya katkıda bulunmaktadır. Dış ticaret kanalı büyük oranda ağ etkisinden kaynaklanmaktadır. Göçmen ağları, ana ve ev sahibi ülke arasındaki ekonomik işlemleri kolaylaştıracak güvene dayalı bir iş ortamı oluşturmaktadır. Bu açıklamalar ışığında hem göç alan hem de göç veren bir ülke olması açısından uluslararası göçün Türkiye’deki bölgesel kalkınma üzerine etkisini araştırmak önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, panel veri analizi kullanarak uluslararası göçün bölgesel kalkınma üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Bu amaçla Türkiye’nin İBBS (İstatistiki Bölge Birimleri Sınıflandırması) 2 düzeyine dayanan 26 bölgesinin 2012-2017 dönemi verisi kullanılmıştır. Tüm bölgeler analize dahil edildiği için katsayılar sabit etkiler modeliyle tahmin edilmiştir. Modelde uluslararası göç ve bölgesel kalkınmayı sırasıyla yasal göçmenlerin sayısı ve kişi başına düşen bölgesel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla temsil etmektedir. Her iki değişkene ilişkin veri Türkiye İstatistik Kurumunun veri tabanından alınmıştır. Çalışmanın temel bulgusuna göre uluslararası göç akımlarının bölgesel kalkınma üzerinde pozitif etkisi vardır. Ayrıca işgücü ve eğitim üzerine yapılan kamu yatırımları, bölgesel kalkınma üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahiptir. Bu kanıtlar ışığında nitelikli göçmen işgücü, bölgeler için dış beşerî sermaye kaynağı olarak değerlendirilebilir. Son olarak ihracatın bölgesel kalkınma üzerinde zayıf bir pozitif etkisi vardır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Uluslararası Göç, Bölgesel Kalkınma, Panel Veri Analizi, Beşeri Sermaye, Dış Ticaret

An Empirical Analysis on International Migration as a Determinant of Regional Development in Turkey

Regional development contributes to the elimination of inter-regional inequalities. Public investments in education, health and infrastructure play an important role in combating inequality, as it increases factor productivity in regions. International migration affects regional development through two channels: human capital and foreign trade. Migrants contribute to regional development as they increase the human capital and hence factor productivity in a region. The trade channel largely stems from the network effect. Migrant networks create a business climate based on trust, facilitating economic transactions between home and host countries. In the light of this explanation it is important to investigate the effect of international migration on regional development in Turkey as a country of both immigration and emigration. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of international migration on regional development by using panel data analysis. For this purpose, the data of Turkey's 26 regions based on the NUTS (Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics) 2 level are used for the period of 2012-2017. Since all regions are included in the analysis, coefficients are estimated by fixed effects model. In the model, international migration and regional development are proxied by the number of legal immigrants and regional gross domestic products per capita, respectively. Data related on both variables is retrieved from the Turkish Statistical Institute database. The main finding of the study is that international migration inflows has a positive effect on regional development. Furthermore, labor force and public investments on education have a positive impact on regional development. In the light of these evidences, qualified migrant workforce can be considered as an external human capital source for the regions. Finally, there is a weak positive effect of exports on regional development.

Keywords:

International Migration, Regional Development, Panel Data Analysis, Human Capital, Trade,

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